The Strait is not just a waterway; it is the heart of the global energy system. If it were to fully shut down, the effects would not be limited to oil markets or the region's geopolitics. It would disrupt the reasoning behind globalisation itself. The world's oil supply is estimated to pass through this area, accounting for about a fifth of the total of around 20 million barrels daily, and a significant portion of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, it is not only their magnitude that can be important. It is a fact that the contemporary global economy has been constructed on the premise that such flows are continuous, predictable, and politically controllable. The complete shutdown of the Strait refutes the assumption in its most fundamental form. The fall of so-called invisible stability Over the decades, the international energy systems have operated on what could be referred to as invisible stability, namely, the assumption that the flow of energy resources is given. Oil moves between producers and consumers with minimal interruption, enabling industries, governments, and societies to plan confidently.
This illusion would be broken if the Strait of Hormuz were closed. Markets are not mere supply-and-demand mechanisms; they are structures that operate through expectations. The effect of such an act of a chokepoint is not only physical but also a psychological shock when such a large-scale chokepoint is closed. The prices are not only higher because supply is lower, but there is also a loss of certainty. Under such circumstances, volatility is a market characteristic. This is why the threat of disruption in the Strait traditionally causes oil prices to rise. The outright closure would signify much deeper: the disappearance of predictability. A shock beyond oil Although it can be said that oil is the nerve of the argument, the shutdown of the Strait would reveal a greater weakness of the systems around the world. The contemporary economy is intertwined, and energy serves as a base on which other industries rely.
