The Namibian elections have come and gone, and while the ruling party, SWAPO, managed to retain power, the cracks in its once-dominant political armor are impossible to ignore. After ruling Namibia since its independence in 1990, SWAPO’s loss of parliamentary seats and its declining public confidence is part of a broader narrative unfolding across Africa: the gradual decline of liberation movements. A few days before the general elections, I presented five possible scenarios of how the elections might unfold and their implications for Namibia’s political trajectory. These scenarios ranged from SWAPO retaining power with a reduced majority to opposition gains and the emergence of new political dynamics. The first scenario, where SWAPO wins both the presidency and a majority in Parliament, ultimately became reality, in the end disappointing many who had hoped for a seismic political shift akin to what happened in Botswana.
However, SWAPO’s victory, which, by the way, was marked by allegations of irregularities, was far from emphatic. In fact, the party’s reduced majority in Parliament and the significant loss of voter confidence highlight a growing dissatisfaction with its leadership and an increasing appetite for change among the electorate. To put things in perspective, at its peak in 2014, the party secured an overwhelming 80% of the vote in the parliamentary election and a supermajority in Parliament, holding 77 out of 96 seats. In 2024, the party went into the elections with 63 parliamentary seats, following a poor showing five years earlier, but emerged with only 51. This means the party managed to retain control of Parliament by only three seats. Even more tellingly, some of SWAPO’s most prominent figures lost their parliamentary seats.
