Mmegi

The unprecedented fall of the BDP

The BDP suffered a historic defeat in the general elections, losing power to the UDC
The BDP suffered a historic defeat in the general elections, losing power to the UDC

As many people reflect on the year and revel in festive celebrations, key members of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) have little cause for joy. Instead, they face the daunting task of regrouping and strategising for a comeback in 2029.

The upcoming period will likely feel like the longest five years in the party’s history, as it navigates the unfamiliar terrain of opposition for the first time. In an unprecedented turn of events, the BDP suffered a humiliating defeat in the general elections, losing power to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC).

This shocking outcome has left many within the party struggling to recover. Adding to their distress is that the party only managed to secure four parliamentary seats, a staggering decline.

The BDP also fared poorly in the local government elections, earning fewer council seats than ever before. Although the party’s overall popular vote was not disastrous, it did little to mitigate the embarrassment of the significant loss.

Ahead of the elections, the party became preoccupied with internal matters, neglecting the need to campaign vigorously at the grassroots level. Despite this, the party managed to maintain its footing in many constituencies, and significant losses were not evident. However, in areas marked by internal conflicts stemming from primary elections or earlier disputes, it became clear that securing victory would not be easy.

In the Central District in particular, the situation worsened following Ian Khama's return, highlighting the extensive effort the BDP would need to convince voters to support them.

Several factors contributed to this dramatic decline, with the warning signs have been evident over the years. One critical issue was the party’s internal splits. In 2010, under the leadership of then-president Khama, a faction broke away to form the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD).

This split bolstered the opposition in 2014, subtly undermining the BDP's dominance. A second, more damaging split occurred in 2018 when the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) was formed. Initially dismissed by the BDP as insignificant, the split proved detrimental, exacerbated by public attacks from former president Khama.

Khama's criticism, particularly regarding his successor Mokgweetsi Masisi, tarnished the party’s image and chipped away at support in the Central District, a historical stronghold for the ruling party. Khama’s influence cannot be underestimated, given his popularity as Bangwato Kgosikgolo.

His return to Botswana just months before the elections, coupled with his court appearances, evoked public sympathy. Many perceived him as a victim of political harassment, further fracturing the BDP's support base.

The fallout between Khama and Masisi further derailed the BDP’s campaign efforts. Instead of focusing on addressing the needs of Batswana, the party became preoccupied with responding to Khama’s allegations, diverting attention from key voter concerns.

Adding to these internal challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic struck, bringing the country’s economy to a standstill for two years. Job losses and widespread business closures further eroded public confidence in the BDP, as it struggled to navigate the crisis effectively.

Equally, the late execution of its primary elections, known as Bulela Ditswe, just two months before the 2024 General Election, was a critical misstep.

This internal process, which allows members to select candidates, has historically been contentious. Conducting it so close to the national polls left little time for member reconciliation or counselling of losing candidates, something that exacerbated internal rifts.

Furthermore, the party leadership’s attempt to impose preferred candidates against the wishes of its grassroots members deepened dissatisfaction. Reports of regional divisions within the party, which lower structures had repeatedly highlighted, were ignored, costing the BDP dearly at the polls. Additionally, the growing influence of wealthy elites within the party alienated lower-class members, who felt marginalised.

These members turned to their voting power to express their frustration. Economic challenges also significantly contributed to the BDP’s downfall. High unemployment rates, particularly amongst the youth and recent graduates, were a major source of discontent. The rising cost of living further fuelled frustration, as many Batswana struggled to make ends meet.

Moreover, there was a widespread perception that the BDP had become complacent and overconfident, assuming that Batswana would continue voting for them regardless of performance.

Furthermore, the widening gap between the rich and the poor amplified the sense of inequality and discontent. Many Batswana felt that the BDP was no longer addressing their needs, ultimately leading to a dramatic shift in the country’s political landscape. Ironically, the policies and laws the BDP had championed to disadvantage other political parties are now working against them.

Through a seismic political shift, former president Masisi became the first leader in Botswana’s history to serve only one term, breaking the tradition of two consecutive terms. In addition to its loss, the BDP was impacted by the uncertainty surrounding the transition after Masisi.

As the BDP seeks to rebuild, some members doubt whether the party chairperson, Slumber Tsogwane, will assume leadership. Others have begun positioning themselves, with some aspiring to be selected as president and others eyeing the vice presidency. In hindsight, the compound issues of internal divisions, leadership conflicts, and external crises created the perfect storm that led to the BDP's historic defeat.

The next five years will test the party’s resilience and ability to reinvent itself in preparation for the 2029 General Election.

Editor's Comment
UDC's 100 Days: Please deliver your promises!

We duly congratulate them to have ousted the long ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) from power. Prior to taking power from the BDP, the coalition had made several election promises that are credited for influencing change and swaying the people to vote in its favour.The party had made an undertaking, which its leader and President Duma Boko consistently bellowed in his campaign trail. These undertakings were promises that Batswana would be...

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