Local firms have grown less optimistic on the business operating conditions in the first half of the year, due to the slow impact of economic transformation policies, a Bank of Botswana survey has shown.
The Business Expectations Survey (BES) for March shows that firms are however more optimistic about business conditions in the 12-month period to March 2026, compared to the first and second quarter of 2025, which could be attributed to government interventions aimed at supporting economic activity, including reforms to further improve the business environment.
The BES is carried out every quarter and gathers the sentiments of 100 businesses from 13 major economic sectors. Whilst the March 2025 BES is yet to be published, the BoB previewed its results in the April Monetary Report released this week. The BES notes that the decline in short-term optimism is also related to the decline in global demand, economic uncertainty due to geopolitical conflicts, as well as competition diamonds are facing from other luxury goods. In the March BES, firms expect that the economy will grow by 1.9 percent in 2025, a significant improvement from the three percent contraction experienced in 2024.
The BoB, however, noted that this expected growth is still slightly below the Ministry of Finance’s projection of 3.3 percent for the same period. The central bank has also more recently said that it expects muted recovery this year, with the likelihood of the 3.3 percent growth being missed due to the impact of the global trade war. In the BES, firms said they expect inflation to average 3.9 percent and 3.7 percent in 2025 and 2026. The BoB expects inflation to average 2.5 percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2026.
