Technocrats struggle to hammer budget figures together

Friday, February 07, 2025 | 270 Views |

On the numbers: New Finance Ministry permanent secretary, Kganetsano,
recently detailed the challenges involved in making revenue forecasts

The estimates for revenues due to be made on Monday are built on precarious ‘best case’ scenarios. The figures, as well as spending priorities, have been the subject of much back and forth at high levels of the Finance Ministry in the last three months, writes MBONGENI MGUNI

The 2025-26 budget estimates released in December are just that – estimates. The figures are precariously based on best, worse and base case scenarios for key revenue lines such as mining, Southern African Customs Union (SACU) receipts and other taxes.

These revenue lines and their forecasts have been volatile in the past year and going forward, are difficult to accurately gauge.

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