South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, was uncharacteristically brusque in his condemnation of recent attacks in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, which resulted in 13 South African National Defence Force fatalities over the space of a few days.
“Following the recent intensification of fighting in the eastern DRC, South Africa has lost 13 brave soldiers who were dedicated to their mission and committed to peace,” Ramaphosa wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday afternoon.
“The fighting is the result of an escalation by the rebel group M23 and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) militia engaging the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) and attacking peacekeepers from the SADC Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC).”
He continued: “South Africa’s military presence in the eastern DRC is not a declaration of war against any country or state.
“The members of the South African National Defence Force that are in the DRC are part of both SADC and United Nations efforts to bring peace and protect thousands of lives that are constantly threatened by the conflict in the DRC.
“The presence of the SAMIDRC forces demonstrates a commitment of SADC member states to supporting the DRC in its efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability and ultimately, create an enabling environment for sustainable development and prosperity.”
The emotive, high-stakes nature of the long-running battle in the eastern DRC became clear when Rwandan president, Paul Kagame, publicly responded to Ramaphosa on X just before midnight on Wednesday, in comments widely seen as belligerent.
“I held two conversations this week with President Ramaphosa on the situation in Eastern DRC, including earlier today.
“What has been said about these conversations in the media by South African officials and President Ramaphosa himself contains a lot of distortion, deliberate attacks, and even lies.
“If words can change so much from a conversation to a public statement, it says a lot about how these very important issues are being managed.”
Kagame continued: “President Ramaphosa has never given a "warning" of any kind, unless it was delivered in his local language which I do not understand.
“He did ask for support to ensure the South African force has adequate electricity, food and water, which we shall help communicate.
“If South Africa wants to contribute to peaceful solutions, that is well and good, but South Africa is in no position to take on the role of a peacemaker or mediator.
“And if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”
The situation in the DRC is an oil-soaked rag waiting for a spark. The mineral-rich country is the second largest in Africa and has been the theatre of war in various conflicts over the decades featuring different countries’ governments, militia, rebels, mercenaries and a host of other parties.
The deep tribal issues, fragmented politics and resource battles over the decades have resulted in deaths and displacements, fuelled by the interests of competing foreign powers and alliances.
Analysts agree that all the ingredients exist for a full-scale regional fall-out in the eastern DRC, a possible escalation to the war of the 1990s that left millions dead from disease and malnutrition.
The main cast of characters in the current conflict include the M23 military rebel group backed by Rwanda and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo which is the DRC army more popularly known as FARDC. Another major actor is the SADC Mission in the DRC, known as SAMIDRC, which was deployed on 15 December 2023 to support the DRC government. SAMIDRC comprises troops from Malawi, Tanzania and South Africa, with the latter having the largest numbers.
Besides this are many other rebel and militia groups from other countries within the region, including over 4,000 Rwandan personnel, according to the UN and Crisis Group, an allegation strongly denied by Kagame who also denies that the country is behind the M23.
The tensions echo back to the same tribal hostilities that erupted into the Rwandan genocide in the early 1990s.
“The risk is real that the situation could escalate into a regional conflagration if talks are not successful,” the International Crisis Group, an independent organisation, said in a statement this week.
“Kigali’s desire to use its superior force to push negotiation positions in its favour is particularly worrying.”
Crisis Group researchers said DRC president, Felix Tshisekedi, faces a stark political challenge, after the M23 pushed through in the east recently and captured Goma, the largest city in the area.
“In short, either side could calculate that more fighting is the best, or the only politically acceptable, option.
“The consequences for civilians from such a wider war would be forbidding.
“The last such bout of fighting in the late 1990s left millions dead, primarily due to malnutrition and disease,” the Group said.
On Thursday, SADC was due to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the unfolding crisis. The DRC is a member of both SADC and the East African Community (EAC), while also being part of the volatile Great Lakes region.
SADC, war-weary from a prolonged campaign in Mozambique, is hoping to secure the cessation of hostilities in a war which seems primed to escalate.
The Heads of State emergency summit, was scheduled for Harare to be presided over by SADC chair, Emmerson Mnangagwa.
However, analysts said SADC’s efforts were unlikely to bear fruit.
“While DRC is a member of SADC, geographically it is a Great Lakes region issue,” a local analyst tracking the conflict told Mmegi.
“SADC’s role is very minimal and its relevance is just because one of their members is there.
“SADC also does not have a good track record in resolving military conflict and even in Mozambique, they left an unresolved issue.
“Where is SADC while Kagame and Ramaphosa exchange salvos?”
Foreign Affairs minister, Phenyo Butale, told Mmegi that Botswana is deeply concerned about the direction the conflict is taking. Earlier in the week, Butale took part in an emergency virtual meeting of the African Union’s Peace and Security Ministerial Council.
“Botswana is deeply concerned about the escalating violence in the DRC, which not only undermines stability within the DRC but also poses substantial risks to regional peace and security,” he said in a brief interview.
“We urge all parties to immediately cease hostilities and engage in constructive dialogue to resolve the ongoing crisis.
“Botswana reaffirms its commitment to humanitarian assistance, the protection of civilians, and the promotion of human rights in the region.
“Additionally, we acknowledge the crucial role of SADC in peacekeeping efforts and call upon the international community to support these initiatives in pursuit of lasting peace in the DRC.”
The Crisis Group expects that the solution to the current hostilities will likely come from the EAC. The Group also believes global superpowers who have sway over the parties involved in the conflict, should step in and apply diplomatic pressure.
In the meantime, the region waits to see which direction the conflict will take.
