How gulf conflicts trigger global shocks

During the June 2025 conflict involving Israel, Iran and the United States, this dependency was exposed through the abrupt and significant increase in crude oil futures.

Financial markets rapidly priced in heightened risk, illustrating how deeply geopolitical volatility in this region is embedded in the valuation logic of global commodity markets. Specifically, oil prices surged by up to 15% during the peak of hostilities, not because supply had already been curtailed, but due to the perceived plausibility of future disruption.