A party insider who prefers anonymity has, however, dismissed reports associating Tsogwane with an emerging party faction emphasising: “In my view, a faction needs a structure. This structure has to have coordinators and none of that is obtainable at the moment.” Instead, our source contends that Tsogwane should be praying to get the nod so that he cannot be possibly dropped from the VP position post October before his wish is granted.
The BDP spokesperson, Kagelelo Kentse, dismissed talk of the emergence of a faction led by Tsogwane.
“We are not aware of any faction led by the Vice President. Those who are reporting about it, did they say what the faction seeks to achieve?” Kentse said rhetorically.
He added: “We know that Tsogwane and Masisi are working very closely together in the party and in government.”
It is a known fact that Masisi has never hesitated to take action against those who challenged his judgements or decision-making within the party. Take for example, the case of former Cabinet Minister, Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi, who had declared interest to challenge him (Masisi) for the party presidency and she was immediately dropped from the Masisi-led Cabinet. We also saw what happened to Dr Thapelo Matsheka, the legislator for Lobatse and his colleague, Gaborone North MP, Mpho Balopi, who were frustrated out of Cabinet for showing interest in challenging VP Tsogwane and other issues. Tsogwane (if he is indeed leading a faction) he may be relegated to the backbench if the President deems the decision worth taking.
Despite the explanation above, talk has been abound that the Vice President is leading a Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) faction whose plan is to dominate the ruling party structures. The strength of the faction, some believe, could be a currency that Tsogwane and company could use as their bargaining strength.
Unverified reports also suggest that the alleged Tsogwane move is tailored as an attempt by the Vice President to put together his alleged preferred team of politicians who will in future favour him as he readies to take over the reigns of power in 2028, if that moment ever comes.
The story of politics always starts with pomp and glory and often ends in shame and pain. It must also be noted that at some stage, allegations that Tsogwane was set to retire from active politics flew thick and fast until his hope was renewed in 2018 when he was appointed the transitional VP and would later post 2019 General Election, get the nod for the position again.
In his comment, Mmegi scribe, Stryker Motlaloso, feels that as the BDP goes to the polls, there will be new alignments and realignments on the basis of emerging issues. He adds that given that it is elections year and that Vice President Tsogwane was promised (given President Masisi’s incessant pronouncements) that his deputy would be the heir apparent, now with other favourites emerging like the case of Finance Minister, Peggy Serame, and Specially Elected MP, Dr Kefentse Mzwinila, Tsogwane is getting sympathetic attention from the party diehards who feel strongly that he should continue as VP. Maybe this is just a perception, but perception matters a lot in politics and rumours about Masisi changing plans on Tsogwane could be a true story.
“Masisi has been giving an impression that Tsogwane is his successor. Now, people are coalescing around issues and providing a shoulder for Tsogwane to lean on with change of plans,” observes Motlaloso, the staple sub editor.
“While real issues are not yet crystal clear, perception cannot be ignored.
But, it remains doubtful that Masisi will in his second term in office, if he wins, appoint Tsogwane again as his deputy,” he asserts.
Motlaloso further posits: “It must also be noted that the State President wields so much power at both government and the party. What Tsogwane has to watch for is that with political appointments, one serves at the pleasure of the President.”
It is Motlaloso’s honest view that “Tsogwane has expended his usefulness as the VP, party chairperson and Leader of House in Parliament.” He feels that after the national polls, Masisi might elect his new team (without Tsogwane as his deputy) to help him through his second term in office, which is often hectic.
Colleague and news coordinator, Spira Tlhankane, holds a view that Tsogwane is indeed leading a faction of the BDP. He feels that the VP is trying to secure his position that has apparently weakened after the President’s eyes shifted to Minister Serame and Mzwinila.
“Now, Tsogwane is trying to gain some traction or bargaining power if you like, so that Masisi can be convinced about his (Tsogwane’s) worth in the BDP,” observes Tlhankane.
There are reports that Masisi and Tsogwane have suffered a fall out. Press reports suggest that Tsogwane loyalists, who contested party primaries for 2024, saw themselves vetted out of the race in numbers, especially for the parliamentary seats.
Tlhankane’s view, however, suggests that the Tsogwane faction cannot do anything to the party ahead of the polls, as it would run the risk of being easily annihilated by the party helmsman.
“For now, I don’t think the factional fights can really destabilise the party per se, but for a fact the party is really divided along those lines,” he says adding that realignment of factions is something that keeps on changing.
For his part, Mmegi reporter, Thabo Lewanika, is of the view that even if Tsogwane is harbouring intentions to lead a faction of the party, there are more risks than good.
He feels it is even too early for the VP to pursue such interests.
“It would serve him better to freeze such intentions (if any) for now and may be show his desires in President Masisi’s second term. Both Masisi and Tsogwane, including the party can then deal with the issue of succession better,” he suggests.
He also says if Tsogwane is caucusing with a few people to back his quest for power, it may at this stage cause unnecessary tensions suggesting that the only way for Masisi then will be to drop Tsogwane from the current position to ease off the alleged pressure mounted by the VP.
“It’s possible,” suggests Lewanika, “that in an effort to allegedly assert himself, Tsogwane might find himself out of the Masisi plans, which might give the last blow to Tsogwane’s presidential ambitions.”
Mmegi political reporter, Tsaone Basimanebotlhe ,concedes that Tsogwane could lead a fraction, “if all of a sudden he feels that Masisi has plans to ditch him from the VP.”
She posits that time and again, President Masisi has emphasised that he was going to retain Tsogwane as his deputy even in his second term in office.
“Remember, in the 2024 General Election, Tsogwane would not be contesting the polls, but he seemingly held onto the promise by his principal to retain him for the position. Any decision or plan to ditch him, could force him to run to the party structures and seek people’s sympathy,” she declares.
In her view, whatever Tsogwane will opt for, will be the decision of a man who is disgruntled by his own party. She adds that whatever decision he will deem fit, “he will be fully aware of what might befall him as a politician.”
Her analysis of the BDP situation was that as of now, it might not be clear what will happen but expects more developments to follow the Tsogwane story.
“There are suspicions that Masisi and Tsogwane have fallen out as more and more politicians emerge from the rank and file of the BDP,” she concludes.
