As the Greater Gaborone residents recover from the February floods that saw Segoditshane River swell to its unprecedented levels and sweep cars off, flattening walls, and submerging houses from the western suburbs of Block 5 all the way to Mochudi, scientists are pointing to a pattern, and it is only getting worse.
Lately, scientists have been investigating the influence of climate change on extreme weather such as heatwaves, hurricanes, and floods. This study, finding a link between climate change and extreme weather, is called 'attribution'.
After the February floods, World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international scientific collaboration that analyses and communicates the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events, put together an attribution study. WWA released their findings on the recent floods yesterday (March 13, 2025).
The research, conducted by 15 international researchers, found that the heavy rainfall that triggered the deadly February floods countrywide, claiming nine lives and displacing hundreds, is becoming more frequent due to climate change.
The study found that rapid urbanisation and inadequate drainage systems worsened the disaster and turned an extreme weather event into a humanitarian crisis.
The research titled, 'Increasing Extreme Rainfall and Rapid Urbanisation, Major Drivers Behind Gaborone’s Deadly Floods' also found that extreme rainfall in the southern part of the country has intensified by approximately 60% compared to pre-industrial times.
Whilst climate models show varying trends in current rainfall patterns, most predict extreme rainfall increases as global temperatures rise. Scientists attribute this to the physical principle that warmer air holds more moisture, leading to heavier rains.
According to WWA, researchers looked at weather data and climate models. They compared how such extreme rains have changed between today’s climate, which is about 1.3°C warmer due to global warming and the cooler climate before industrialisation.
Dr Ben Clarke of Imperial College London emphasised the role of human-caused climate change.
“Heavy rainfall has become more intense in recent decades, and the situation will worsen with further warming. “Cutting fossil fuel emissions and adapting to a warmer climate are critical to limiting future damage,” he said.
The floods, which occurred between February 16 and 20, devastated communities in the capital city, and Greater Gaborone, including neighbouring districts like South-East, Kweneng, and Kgatleng, where infrastructure struggles to cope with rapid urbanisation.
Professor Piet Kenabatho of the University of Botswana noted that similar extreme rainfall events in 2017 and 2021 also caused severe flooding, underscoring the urgent need for improved stormwater management systems.
“In the last 10 years, Botswana experienced at least three years of extreme rainfall events, in 2017, 2021, and 2025, all happening in the month of February, almost around the same period, February 15–20. “In light of this, and given the current state of drainage systems in Botswana and the frequency of extreme rainfall events, investment in adequate stormwater management systems is more than urgent if Botswana is to cope with the effects of climate change,” he noted.
Tiro Nkemelang, a researcher at the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation, stressed the importance of proactive measures to enhance resilience.
“Climate change is real and undeniably affecting us. The recent floods serve as clear evidence of its impact, which we are already experiencing. “Our study suggests that similar extreme rainfall events and their associated impacts may increase in the future, highlighting the need for proactive measures to enhance resilience,” he said.
Nkemelang noted that this rapid attribution study comes at a time when the impact of climate change on extreme weather events in Botswana as well as its broader implications for the nation, remain largely understudied.
“Whilst this research helps bridge that gap, it also underscores the need for greater investment in local weather and climate research, particularly at the intersection of climate and development. “As President Duma Boko stated in response to the floods, we must 'work to better plan for these occurrences,” Nkemelang said.
As the country faces more frequent extreme weather events, experts urge governments to prioritise climate adaptation and sustainable development to protect vulnerable communities.
Conducted by 15 researchers, the study was part of the WWA group including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Botswana, Denmark, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
