These changing conditions create vulnerabilities that terrorist groups exploit for recruitment and tactical advantage, deepening instability and perpetuating cycles of violence in affected regions. Terrorist organisations like Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and ISIS affiliates have entrenched themselves in various regions of Africa, each exploiting local grievances and environmental challenges to expand their influence. Boko Haram, primarily active in Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon, capitalises on economic hardships and resource conflicts exacerbated by environmental degradation. Al-Shabaab, operating mainly in Somalia and parts of Kenya, leverages drought-induced displacement and food insecurity to recruit fighters and extort communities. Meanwhile, ISIS affiliates, such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), thrive in the Sahel’s fragile environment, using smuggling routes and ungoverned spaces to conduct operations and destabilise governments.
Environmental ruin and economic despair is the nexus fueling terrorist recruitment in the Sahel and other regions. According to Langel, the Sahel is experiencing some of the fastest rates of desertification globally, with 80% of the land degraded and a 40% decline in annual rainfall since the 1970s. The environmental degradation, exacerbated by prolonged droughts, has drastically reduced agricultural yields. He avers that for instance, in Niger, agricultural productivity has dropped by more than 20% over the past 20 years due to soil erosion and reduced rainfall. As a result, this scarcity fuels competition over dwindling resources, leading to conflicts between communities. This scenario offers an opportunity for terrorist groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab to exploit these tensions, offering protection or resources to gain the loyalty of desperate communities, thus expanding their influence.
