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Why commodity prices are likely to fall further

Combine Harvester
Combine Harvester

Real interest rates appear to be on a firm upward trend, because nominal interest rates will rise and inflation will fall. Together with decelerating global growth, that could mean that the recent decline in the real prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural products will persist JEFFREY FRANKEL*

CAMBRIDGE: Big movements in the prices of oil, minerals and agricultural commodities have been amongst the most salient economic developments of the past couple of years.

The sharp rise in commodity prices for much of this period was virtually impossible to miss. A barrel of Brent crude that sold for $20 in April 2020, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, fetched a peak of $122 in March 2022, just after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil was not the only commodity to experience a price surge.

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It highlights the need to protect rights such as access to clean water, education, healthcare and freedom of expression.President Duma Boko, rightly honours past interventions from securing a dignified burial for Gaoberekwe Pitseng in the CKGR to promoting linguistic inclusion. Yet, they also expose a critical truth, that a nation cannot sustainably protect its people through ad hoc acts of compassion alone.It is time for both government and the...

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