Mmegi

Cautious optimism: An uncertain year beckons

Tough year: The BoB had to think outside the box this year in terms of monetary policy.  New governor, Lesego Moseki, enters his first full year in January with a huge ‘to do’ list
Tough year: The BoB had to think outside the box this year in terms of monetary policy. New governor, Lesego Moseki, enters his first full year in January with a huge ‘to do’ list

It is also presently unknown how efficient or even clean this spending has been this year or indeed in the last two years, as the last Auditor-General’s report on public spending was for the year ended March 2022. For an economy that has endured sustained pressure, signs of relief are beginning to emerge. Whether these rays of hope mark the start of a turnaround or are simply a pause before the storm, remains uncertain. As optimism continues to compete with caution, Staff Writers MBONGENI MGUNI, PAULINE DIKUELO, and TIMOTHY LEWANIKA report

The economy is expected to contract this year, as familiar challenges from 2024 persist into the current financial cycle. Despite a negative economic output, there are silver linings that could support a recovery trajectory next year. Along with the silver linings, there are also dark clouds of uncertainty and, indeed, dread.

Copper shoots upOne major reason for hope going into 2026 is the greater gains recently seen in copper. This week, copper prices exploded to record highs again, not because the world is running out of the metal but in part because the United States (US) is scooping up so much of it that everyone else is scrambling for what is left. Benchmark three-month copper hit an all-time high of $11,952 a metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Friday. By press time on Wednesday, the base metal was trading around $11,655 per tonne, up roughly 33% for the year. The US has been aggressively stockpiling metal ahead of potential tariffs, pulling huge volumes out of the tradable global system and tightening supplies everywhere else. For a country with a rich Kalahari Copperbelt, the rise and rise of copper prices will benefit the fiscus through increased mineral tax and the possible opening of more copper mines that will bolster exports and increase earnings.

Editor's Comment
Warm relations must not come at the expense of fair trade

“I believe that free but fair trade isan absolute imperative”– John E. JamesFor two countries bound by geography, history and deep economic ties, periods of diplomatic strain serve neither side well. President Duma Boko’s efforts to restore momentum to relations with Pretoria deserve recognition, particularly at a time when Southern Africa faces shared challenges ranging from sluggish economic growth and unemployment to energy security...

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