Although the Pretoria peace agreement brought temporary calm, the rifts between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) remain deep. Instead of securing lasting peace, the agreement has internally divided the TPLF. While some factions are willing to cooperate with Abiy Ahmed, others categorically reject his government. The Prime Minister attempted to exploit these internal divisions for his own power consolidation, but this strategy could prove to be dangerous. The risk of renewed armed conflict in Tigray is growing—a scenario that would further undermines the country’s fragile stability.
Another significant problem for Ahmed is the growing hostility of the Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group. During the Tigray war, many Amhara militias fought alongside the government against the TPLF. They saw themselves as a crucial pillar of Ahmed’s war strategy and expected their interests to be considered after the victory. However, following the peace agreement, many Amharas felt betrayed by Ahmed. The government began disarming some of their paramilitary forces, while unresolved land disputes in the region remained.
