The bruising Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) second round primary elections are just around the corner and many scalps will be lost, Staff Writer TSAONE BASIMANEBOTLHE looks at some of the constituencies and predicts winners and losers
The Vice President Slumber Tsogwane is likely to win the primaries. The residents of Boteti West are happy that they have a VP coming from their area. They have hope of developments for their constituencies. This is one of undeveloped constituencies, and one area that give residents sleepless nights is having to drink smelly water. The internal roads in the villages are bad. Tsogwane has been an MP for the area for more since 1999. He would be battling it out with Tlale Setumo and Emmanuel Kgaboetsile.
This is one of the unpredictable constituencies because both candidates grew up in the area. Unlike Monametsi Kalayamotho, Dumizweni Meshack Mthimkhulu has long been on this game as he once tried his luck in 2014 as independent candidate. However the game is different, as they both need to have campaigned enough within BDP in order to claim the constituency. This is one of the dicey constituencies and both candidates stand a chance to win.
This constituency has been one of the BDP strongholds, which they retained during 2014 general elections against the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). The four candidates who are battling it out include David Sethatho, Raymond Molatole, Thato Tshwenenyagae and Edward Stanley. MP Christiaan De Graaff is not contesting the elections this time around.
The incumbent, Patrick Ralotsia might win the primaries while the other four may split their votes. His win will depend on whether he was visible in the constituency during his maiden tenure as the area MP. The constituency had not been a BDP stronghold and anyone who wins should be a credible candidate and could be able to lure support from both ruling party and the opposition. Leach Kemmapatse Tlhomelang, Thapelo Letsholo, Victor Makuku, Julius Kamodi and Kenalemogwe Mopipi will challenge Ralotsia.
The competition is stiff among the two. It is not given that the incumbent Itumeleng Moipisi will come back. Both Moipisi and Talita Monnakgotla stand a good chance to win. The BDP members are divided between the two candidates and the one who loses might fail to cooperate with another one in the coming general election. The campaign amongst the two candidates has not been clean.
The incumbent, Vincent Seretse will have to prove that he is indeed strong in the area without his former campaign manager Chomie Letlole. This time, tables have turned around as Seretse is challenged by one of his former foot soldiers, Letlole himself. Tension was rife in this area amongst the candidates to a point that the Political Education and Elections Committee (PEEC) supervised registration of membership. Apart from Letlole, other candidates challenging Seretse are Magatusi Sebego, Patrick Manthe, Nnaniki Makwinja, Reuben Mokopaina and Bennedict Molefe.
Competition is expected to the very tight in Thamaga-Kumakwane. The incumbent, Tshenolo Mabeo is facing a popular Thamaga North
This is one of the constituencies that are difficult to predict since all the candidates stand a chance to win. However, the four aspiring ones may split the votes, opening the door for incumbent, Liakat Kablay. Other candidates are Kgopolo Leonard Lekuntwane, Alfred Molapo, Daisy Pelonomi Botsoba, Lefoko Kegopotswe and Edward Kepaletswe.
For a while now, speculation has been rife that the incumbent MP Sadique Kebonang will struggle to make a comeback in the primaries because of the National Petroleum Fund (NPF) saga. But the former Minister of Resources, Green Technology and Energy Security may sail through against the chairperson of Hospitality and Tourism Association of Botswana (HATAB) Thapelo Matsheka, businessperson Ahmed Israel, Lone Bome, Patrick Kebailele and Kamal Jacobs. The five might split votes in favour of the incumbent.
This is one of the constituencies where drama is likely to happen. When the incumbent, Dr Alfred Madigele was campaigning for the first time in the area, he used his medical speciality to call other medical doctors to assist people in the area. Madigele is a medical doctor by profession. The strategy brought him votes against the veteran Peter Siele. Now he is facing veterinarian Dr Edwin Dikoloti who is also assisting farmers on how they could take care of their livestock and even prescribing injections for their cattle. This has also made Dikoloti popular. The two will be facing Pelonomi Namogang and Diane Gopolang who are also well known in the area.
The constituency is a stronghold of opposition parties because they have won it more than the ruling one. But no one could rule out the possibility of BDP winning it if they have a credible candidate. However the constituency has brought new faces this time around. The former director of immigration Mabuse Pule will battle it out with Gobusamang Kampa, Motsumi Madisa and Shangano Kubanji.
Karabo Gare is a new comer in Parliament after winning a recent by-election with a big margin. For the sake of stability in the party, members may continue to vote for Gare against Stephen Kganela, who they snubbed during the BDP primaries to replace former area MP, President Mokgweetsi Masisi recently.
Legend is rife that area MP Ngaka Ngaka is not visible in the constituency as he fails to address kgotla meetings. Ngaka is up against Councillor Tlotlo Batlhophi of Tatatokwane-Dutlwe ward which is a stronghold of BDP and Friction Leuwe. The latter has been trying his luck several times. He has been failing to make it because he is from Ditshegwane ward, which is a stronghold of opposition.