Violent conflict distorts global trade

A stark increase in conflict-related deaths had already been observed prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, overturning a five-year decline since the peak of the Syrian civil war in 2014.

Notably, battle deaths spiked by 45% between 2020 and 2021, predominantly in the Asia-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa regions. As we look to the horizon, potential challenges such as climate change, economic disparities, and political instability could arise in the future, potentially affecting regions globally. Rising geopolitical competition marks a shift in conflict dynamics in an increasingly multipolar world, particularly in strategic regions. Notably, powerful states, like Russia and China, and emerging regional actors like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are now more proactive. They are offering political, military, and financial support beyond their immediate regions, thereby intensifying conflicts.