In this sense, the contemporary global order is not merely in transition; it is tilting into a zone of turbulence where regional wars, great power rivalries, and unprecedented alliances intertwine to shape an uncertain future. The war in Ukraine, with more than 500,000 military and civilian casualties according to Western estimates, has reintroduced to European soil the brutal logic of high-intensity warfare that many believed was consigned to the 20th century. At the same time, in Gaza, the clashes unleashed in 2023, already causing more than 40,000 deaths, have raised the specter of a regional conflagration that could draw in other actors determined to reshape the Middle East. Further east, the Sino-American standoff over Taiwan is intensifying. Beijing has raised its military budget to nearly $230 billion (+16% in 2024), while Washington maintains a colossal $886 billion defense effort, crystallising a naval, technological, and strategic rivalry that is already reshaping the Indo-Pacific. Beyond these visible flashpoints, other regions in Africa are also experiencing mounting tensions, and conflict has reached alarming proportions. Terrorism continues to expand across the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea, with more than 7,800 deaths linked to jihadist violence in 2023, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Meanwhile, a succession of coups has shaken Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon in less than three years.
Compounding this is the growing impact of climate change, which directly threatens food security. More than 130 million Africans currently face severe food insecurity. At the same time, nearly 20 million people have been displaced within the continent by wars and instability, particularly in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. At the same time, contests for influence among external powers are multiplying, while the militarisation of rivalries around energy, mineral, and maritime corridors illustrates Africa’s entry into an increasingly globalised conflict dynamic.
