The deepening threat of Al –Shabaab

The federal government’s de facto sphere of control is confined to Mogadishu and a few satellite towns: essentially a metropolis with a diplomatic corps and a demoralised, ineffectual army.

Absent a dramatic change in direction, likely near-term scenarios include collapse of the federal government and an al Shabaab takeover of the national capital, with profound consequences for regional stability and security. Al Shabaab’s strength has always been a reflection of the Somali government’s weakness.