Middle East war to spark biggest energy price surge in four years :: Mmegi Online

WASHINGTON: Energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year to their highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, according to the World Bank Group's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertiliser prices and record-high prices for several key metals.

The shock will have serious implications for job creation and development, the analysis indicates.

Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day. Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025. These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026.

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