US recession to lower Botswana's exports

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Although Botswana's macro economic environment looks good, the possibility of a recession in the US, regional power cuts and the 'fiscal surge' promised in the 2008 budget speech remain major challenges for the country's export-dependent economy, observers say.

The US, apart from its AGOA II which allows duty-free treatment of mainly textiles exports from Botswana and other African countries, is the world's single largest diamond market, leading economic pundits to warn that a US recession - expected in the first quarter of 2008 - would have an impact on Botswana's exports. 

"Any slowdown there (in the US) would undoubtedly lead to lower sales, or reduced prices, or both, resulting in reduced diamond earnings and possible stockpiling if production levels are maintained," argues Dr Keith Jefferis, Managing Director of Econsult in his reaction to the 2008/09 budget speech.

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