Inflation slumps to 16-month low

*Recent fuel price rise to moderate further decline

Consumer inflation slowed for the fourth consecutive month to 7.5 percent year-on-year in April from 8.0 percent in March, Statistics  Botswana (SB) said this week. The April rate is the lowest in 16 months as inflation eases, indicating a lower rate of increases in prices when compared to the 2011 price trends. Inflation has been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of the year from a peak of 9.2 percent in December 2011 to the current levels, reflecting easing inflationary pressures as last year's heavy price increases fall out of the calculation.

In a statement, SB said the annual decline in inflation was recorded across a broad range of commodity groups including the three groups with the highest weights such as food and non-alcoholic beverages (21.8 percent weight) which eased to 7.6 percent year on year(y/y) in April from 8.8 percent y/y the previous month, followed by transport (18.9 percent weight) which dropped to 10.6 percent y/y from 11.5 percent y/y the previous month and 'housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (11.5 percent weight) which came in at 8.6 percent y/y from 8.8 percent y/y the previous month. Despite the slowdown in the inflation rate, the Bank of Botswana recently said it is unlikely that inflation will fall within the previous 3-6 percent objective target range by the second half of the year.

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