Business Expectations Survey Misrepresented Current Sentiment

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The Bank of Botswana (BoB) has admitted that the just released Business Expectations Survey (BES), which was done before the escalation of the negative news about prospects for the economy, could mean that the generally optimistic orientation may not accurately reflect current sentiment.

"While the results of the survey provide valuable insight into sentiment among Botswana businesses, the results must be interpreted very cautiously," the central bank warns in a BES summary released Friday. BoB says the next survey, to be conducted in March, and after the
2009 Budget Speech, will be more reliable. The report summarises the results of the 11th BES, which was conducted between September and November 2008. The survey covers three periods: the second half of 2008 (H2 2008), the first half of 2009 (H1 2009) and the 12-month period to December 2009 (H1 - H2 2009). 

However, inflation and output measures are based on the national accounts year (June to July), and the calendar year respectively.  The survey shows there was continued optimism regarding general prospects of the economy, with real GDP expected to grow by 6 percent in both national accounting years of 2007/08 and 2008/09.  This is largely unchanged from the previous survey despite the CSO having released estimates that growth in 2007/08 was lower at 3.3 percent.

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