It now seems unlikely that the Tribunal's chances of success are going to improve.
In recent weeks it has emerged that the main parties in Kenya - President Mwai Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) and the Prime Minister's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) - are divided on their support for the Waki Report. Camps in both parties for and against prosecuting have now been identified with individuals. However, those initially in favour of full implementation of the Report (prosecutions to end impunity for the most serious crimes) such as the Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Justice Minister Martha Karua were heavily outnumbered by the 'no' voices among MPs. Odinga was soon forced to tow the party line when the ODM Parliamentary Group resolved to reject the report. Although the PNU does not seem to have adopted a uniform stand, the majority in PNU (whose collective views are reflected in regional caucuses) - like in ODM - have poured cold water on the report, labelling it 'shoddy', 'inadequate' and 'divisive'.
Despite protestations from the general public, sections of civil society and victims over the political bickering on how to move the process forward, the Waki Report could have been declared dead by November 5 when voices emerged from both sides of government calling for a fresh probe. Others suggested that prosecuting those named in the sealed list - rumoured to be senior members from both PNU and ODM, as well as high profile business people - would be a recipe for chaos and that the soon-to-be created Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) should deal with the matter. While all this was happening, there were consistent voices from sections of the international community, including former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, suggesting that failure to act would cause the International Criminal Court (ICC) to take the matter over. This is in line with the Waki Report, which recommends that the ICC step in if the Special Tribunal fails to take off or is subverted midway.
