The coming global energy revolution

The Reference Scenario - in which no new policies are introduced - in the International Energy Agency's 2008 World Energy Outlook sees annual global primary energy demand growing 1.6% on average up to 2030, from 11,730 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) to just over 17,010 Mtoe - an increase of 45% in just over 20 years. China and India account for just over half of this increase, with Middle East countries contributing a further 11% to demand. Non-OECD countries account for 87% of the increase, so their share of world primary energy demand will rise from 51% to 62%.

Most oil production increases are expected to come from just a few countries - mainly in the Middle East, but also Canada with its vast oil-sands reserves, the Caspian region, and Brazil. Gas production in the Middle East will triple, and more than double in Africa, where there are large low-cost reserves.