An inconvenient truth about OPEC

Monday, September 20, 2010

DALLAS - The three major organisations that forecast long-term oil demand and supply - the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) - along with oil companies and consulting firms, believe that OPEC will reconcile predicted global demand and non-OPEC supply.

But they are wrong: OPEC output will not meet such projections, because they are based on flawed and outdated forecasting models.

In forecasts that carry forward to the 2030's, the three organisations share the view that world energy demand will increase, that developing countries will account for most of the increase, and that fossil fuel will remain dominant.

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