According to a coal export study carried out by the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA), the coal export market can employ up to 6 000 people and provide about a quarter of the revenue currently generated from diamond sales by 2026. Diamonds revenues have averaged over P12 billion per annum, but in light of the expected decline in diamond production post 2027, BIDPA reckons that coal will come in as a key industry that has the capacity to partially absorb the impact of the decrease.
"Analysis suggests that the thermal coal exports sector constitute a substantial potential economic benefit for Botswana, although even at 90 million tonnes per annum, cannot constitute a substitute for diamond revenues.Given the gestation period of rail road construction government needs to move expeditiously on a railroad decision given the uncertainties of coal prices and demand following 2030,"says professor Roman Grynberg in the 2012 study report. According to BIDPA, coal exports will start to significantly contribute to the economy next year at one billion Pula rising to as much as P12 billion by 2018 at a production level of 34 mtpa.
