The AfDB’s forecast, released this week, is the most conservative of the authoritative analyses usually released after the start of the financial year. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast of local growth to 3.9 percent, while government whose own predictions are traditionally more optimistic, announced a 4.2 percent forecast in February.
In an indepth analysis of the broader Southern African region, the AfDB noted that while higher international mineral prices would bode well for Botswana, the country’s reliance on this exposure also heightened the threats to its economic outlook. “The heavy reliance on commodities continues to leave it (Botswana) vulnerable to international market fluctuations, pointing to the need to add more value to minerals and diversify the economic base,” AfDB researchers said. “Botswana thus has to target high-productivity sectors, reduce vulnerability to external shocks, and deliver a more inclusive, resilient, and job-creating economy.” The AfDB’s forecast comes as the Bank of Botswana doubles down on government’s official projection of 4.2 percent growth for 2019.
