Project Syndicate

Yes, economic issues will play a large role in determining the outcome. But the next step in the argument - that the winner of an increasingly ugly contest will have the luxury of pursuing significantly different policies from his opponent - is much more uncertain.

By the time the next presidential term starts in January 2013, and contrary to the current narratives advanced by the Obama and Romney campaigns, the incumbent will find himself with limited room for maneuver on economic policy.