How much will the vote swing in 2014?

As the parties finalise their candidate lists and begin launching their manifestos and candidates, voters and observers will begin to assess their prospects. Since 2009, there has been considerable change in the party system and in political affiliations of individual politicians.

How will voters respond? Should we expect equally dramatic changes in voter behavior or more incremental movements in the 2014 elections?  An analysis of vote swings in past elections provides some perspective.