A BDP in the interregnum

LAWRENCE OOKEDITSE
Correspondent | Thursday July 5, 2012 00:00

 

 In its original definition, it was a period between one monarchy and the rise of another. 'Inter' being Latin for 'between' and 'regnum' the same language for 'reign'. With the departure and return of those who formed the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and an increasingly inconclusive rumour mill over the BDP vice presidential successor and future president, the BDP is in a state of interregnum of its own. A state of interregnum as must be, has its own dynamics and at the end someone emerges with the crown. This calls for a careful management of such a state.

What then of my application of the interregnum to the state of the BDP?The party's president is popular and still in complete control. The republic remains intact and there is no central committee election in the immediate vicinity. All these suggest continuity and no such 'between reigns', you may argue. The order of the current period and the strength of the leadership of the party breed this. Let us first turn to the presidency of Ian Khama and how it produces an interregnum.

President Khama has been a colossus. Very few men in history have been able to run an organisation on their own terms as he has.

This is not a debate of the greatness of his record so I will not go into what he has gotten right and what he has gotten wrong. Effectively, he has made it quite difficult for whoever his successor will be to rule. Presidential historians often refer to a theory of 'belatedness' in explaining the failure of a president who succeeds a strong president. Often, such a successor struggles to fill the big shoes of his predecessor and if not intelligent enough to create his own legacy, forever lives in the shadow of the guy who came before him. He struggles even to assert his authority. President Khama's successor will suffer from belatedness.

Thus, despite there being a president in office, some vacuum/gap in the future already exists because he has reshaped society and government along his own ways.

Talking of the future president, it is perhaps the hallmark of the BDP interregnum. Currently, no one seems to have any certainty over who will become the next president. It is an unprecedented state. Previously, you knew that in the event president Sir Seretse Khama was no longer president, you had Sir Ketumile Masire to take over in the interim and long term.

 With President Masire you also knew with certainty that vice-president Festus Mogae would take over for the long term. With President Mogae you knew Khama will take over in the long haul. This time around it is different and this is not a creation of President Khama but a result of time. The BDP's long term successor is unknown. Naturally then, those who fancy themselves are close by and forever sniffing around to say 'is it me?'

Fifty years in existence and at least 40 years in government mean a party must transform. The BDP has remained steadfastly conservative and to some degree unable to evolve. This meant that anyone who comes on board and shakes the party up would face an upheaval. Thus it needed a brave leader who would do it anyway. President Khama did and in so doing led to the split of the party. The split was unprecedented but with it came the intensification of a period of 'between reigns'.

The split has led to a scenario where some of those who were young enough to succeed President Khama, and one has ample reason to believe he would have wanted a younger person to succeed him, decamped to the BMD. With this move, a good part of a generation of successors left the BDP. This meant potential successors will be drawn from a rather limited pool of talent-unless he also draws from outside the party. Among those who stayed behind, none has made themselves the undisputed future vice-president and president. None has been able to impress it upon the nation, media and party structures that they are an undisputed successor.

Thus, a few are beginning to send out feelers.Making things even worse is the return of exiles that had gone to the BMD. The BDP has accepted them back. In so doing, those who stayed behind have largely kept quiet about their return. They have managed any possible dissent against their return and this is part of the uncertainty of being in an interregnum. The silence means words which had to be said have not been said. Tussles which naturally must have occurred did not occur. Men who have been caught doing what they must not be doing by their better halves would know of the discomfort when she just keeps quiet as though nothing wrong happened. You want her to say something, vent out her anger in words, slap you even and then make up. Women must feel the same way under the same circumstances. In the absence of a display of that, something is forever lingering in the air. You are home and it seems you are ok but you forever make careful steps.

Now, those who are angry that the BMD was formed must vent. But they have not because intrinsically they all seem to realise they are in the interregnum and want to incubate it as much as they can. All are in their best behaviour and the Facebookers who normally are first to spit venom have taken it in their stride to accept the returnees. I do not like political matters to simmer; they must not fester on the inside.

Rather, words must be exchanged from either side-fierce if it must be - then you move on. The problem now is some of those who returned are capable politicians and great human beings. In terms of the estimation of political stock, some are notches above even those who have been in the BDP.

Yet those in the party expect them not to contest any positions of leadership any time soon.

This is an unwritten code and it is not a verbal covenant either. It is something in the minds of many each of whom do not want to say it for fear of being viewed as troublemakers.

All these though will backfire next year - if not earlier. As primary elections approach, uproar will occur as candidates will declare their loyalty and brand others as disloyal on the basis of having been to the BMD.

Those who were at the BMD and are unchallenged at primaries may have it easier but those who will be challenged will have it worse.

Even starkier is the possibility of a future vice president being someone who had gone to the BMD.

 In terms of ability and appeal, some of those who had gone have what it takes. Now, under the current climate where people do not speak and fight if they must, the dissenting voices will flare up then.

The question then will arise: do the BDP and its positions of leadership belong exclusively to those who never decamped? It will arise then because it was not dealt with now.

This is the problem with the current phase where all is so sensitive. But again you cannot blame them as interregnums are naturally sensitive periods. This has the form of a thing that could lead to future factional lines in the party. It needs careful management.

The silent tension will be broken by the choice of a vice-president when returnees who have done better than even those who stayed behind in building the BDP brand may be pitted against cadres who stayed put and fought for the party when it split. It is a tough situation for an organisation but it has begun at the BDP.

It is like that time when the sun is setting but the light of day is still much visible, or when dawn is breaking but darkness still envelopes the earth. Such a period is characterised by fuzzy vision, careful steps and uncertainty. If not well managed, one's day gets spoiled.

A lot could go wrong, a lot could go right. Those at Tsholetsa House must be busy preparing to guide their party at this stage as their skill will determine its destiny, that of the political opposition and the nation. Crazy rumination some may say this is....but wait and see.