BNF vs BCP: Who really is bigger?

LAWRENCE OOKEDITSE
Correspodent | Friday January 27, 2012 00:00

Now my friend Olebile Sikwane prompted this. He no doubt is one of the most intelligent youth of this generation. Olebile texted to make his point in response to my position that the BNF is bigger than the BCP right in the middle of the night, 23:59 hrs to be precise. He disagreed; not without ground. This I will address since it appears a host of other people share his views, particularly in the green/lime camp.   'Maloro, I am reading your BMD article in the Mmegi, while it is a good article I am disturbed by the mistake that you too seem to make that BNF is bigger than BCP, despite the fact that we have been voted by 90 000, BNF by 60 000 with 89 councilors and while BNF got 62, we have 5 MPs BNF has 6 (Rammidi included) who is big really? Or you meant by age?'

Sikwane asked meaningful questions. His statistics, which seems to be what everyone at BCP is using, are challengeable. Even if the BCP had acquired more popular vote than the BNF they would only be the party with the majority, not the larger party.

My position is informed among other factors by the 2009 general election results. The results clearly show that the BCP's performance was not better than that of the BNF in absolute terms. They may have grown twofold or so but so has MELS. This does not make either MELS or the BCP bigger than the BNF.

Now, what is my argument and why am I branding the BNF as the second largest movement in the country after the BDP? Because the numbers say so as the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA) points out. In a branding spree, it has become popular for those in the BCP to brandish the party as the second largest in the country. Clearly as Sikwane points out, they were voted for by thousands more people in the past general election.

That 'more people' phrase is better contextualized as they did so only in comparison with the number of people who voted for them (BCP) in 2004. In the tenth general election in 2009, the BNF had the second highest popular vote after the BDP. A total 119,509 people voted BNF while 104,302 voted BCP. This was a phenomenal increase for the BCP but it only made the party the fastest growing party in the country - not the second largest. Even if you tally their popular vote with the 12 thousand and a few units that BAM, since assimilated, garnered they still are below the BNF.

So, what is the noise about? In what sense then are they bigger than BNF? In Parliament? Certainly not since despite losing 6 seats from 2004 to 2009, the BNF still garnered 6 seats in parliament while the BCP managed just 4. This was before the BCP's merger with BAM. Even with the merger, BNF remains ahead on this score. Over and above that, my response to Sikwane sums my argument.

I returned the message: 'What is my formula? Much like you argue that the BMD has no real support, I will confidently say BCP is bigger than BNF if you repeat your feat at the next election: for now you have a majority over BNF (at council level since the merger with BAM). Keep them next election and you will be bigger cauz then you would have captured them...makes sense?' At local government level the BCP only edged the BNF out after their merger with BAM. Results from the polls confirm this: If they want, they can boast that they are bigger than the BNF. Their proclamation of 'bigness' though remains only provisional. This is because they in actual fact have a majority of opposition votes from the past general election only at council level given that they have entered into a tight coalition. Are they not the biggest opposition party then? No, they are the majority party at local government.

You ask me what a big party is. It is a party that has consistently displayed dominance of others at elections. The BDP in this sense is a big party. They have systematically and with a measure of consistency dominated the others. Meanwhile the BCP has a majority on only one indicator: a majority meaning they have some numerical superiority but such superiority is neither consistent nor emperical. The demonstration of sustenance of some form of domination over others is what earns the proclamation of being big, not a once off feat that is yet to be replicated or bettered. Even more, where it matters most at Parliament level, the BCP is yet to edge out the BNF. The declaration of 'bigness' is as such as premature as it could prove misguided. But, this is no new thing and it is not wrong either, after all, parties need to proclaim that they are huge. The BCP called itself 'Mogobagoba' even before they were bigger than BAM and this is great electioneering.

What do I have against the BCP? Nothing but it is just that I am a huge fan of reality checks. In actual fact, I think the BCP is one of the best two political parties in this country when it comes to political manifestos. In comparison to the BAM that the BCP 'swallowed', and of late they are really good at doing that (a thing that could have made BMD run for its survival) also in comparison to MELS, BPP and Thoko Tiro the BCP is big. There is no doubt about that because they have consistently beaten those parties at the polls. Over those, the BCP is bigger, definitely bigger.

Make no mistake, this is no discrediting of the BCP or belittling. They have done a lot and they continue to be responsible for championing some national causes and keeping the BDP government in check. It is a role that they have done with a fair measure of aplomb; better than the BNF? I doubt that. Well, they may argue they were part of the BNF initiatives.

The BCP won its provisional majority over the BNF at a point in time when the BNF was going through crisis, also with the assistance of an old horse in BAM. While this does not discredit the BCP majority, it means the BCP majority is just that - an artificial majority. It does not define dominance. Why?

This is because the BNF was at its not unusual low ebb of its pendulum swings. The BCP could not beat the BNF on any one indicator even when the BNF was at its lowest. When you swing a pendulum, it goes back and forth, at some point it is at its lowest point then it bounces back and back again. If you are to measure its oscillation just once you'd have failed. This is because it most certainly will swing back as it further oscillates. Now, that pendulum behaviour of the BNF must always be watched.

Any political historian worth their salt would tell you that the BNF has since formation been a party that loses heavily at one election only to bounce back at the next. Just that those in the BCP are too emotional about this, but they should know better. When they thought they had annihilated the BNF, it returned more furious and recaptured its seats. Even the BDP knows that has been a trend for the past forty years. This trend is yet to be dis-proven. The BCP has a golden chance to do that come 2014. It is in their hands to keep.  Up until they do that to break the BNF trend, then the BNF remains the second largest party.

A BCP majority at 2014 however will then unseat them from that position. Up until then, the BCP has a slight majority which it must fight hard to keep. There is a good possibility that the BCP won most of what it won because of disenchantment with the BNF. Usually, disenchanted BNF members would back any other opposition compared to the BDP only to return to vote for their party once the storm is over. This is possibly the biggest test the BCP faces towards 2014. If not careful, they will return to parliament with slightly more than half of the seats they currently have. This is not to burst their bubble but to say they not be shocked, especially if they do not wrap up another struggling entity to boost their outlook.  With the BNF seemingly getting back to order, and if the opposition parties do not unite, the book makers will be putting their money on a resurgent and bullish BNF reoccupying the opposition summit. Being a disinterested party if the BCP retains its majority in 2014 at local government level and also manages to win the popular vote and number of seats in parliament, I will call Sikwane and congratulate him.

I will also give him a hand and let him know that now they can call themselves big justifiably. To my dear friend and a rare mind, Olebile Sikwane, be optimistic but cautiously so. It is not yet uhuru. The BCP could do with a bit of modesty and true self-evaluation which would reveal they are 23 yes ,though I don't know now how much with the emergence of the BMD, but they are not the biggest political thing around. They could be, but they are not. They are threatening to be and might as well go ahead to be but they are not yet. Really sorry but they are not there just yet.