As I see it

MICHAEL DINGAKE | Friday January 20, 2012 00:00

Charles Mackay writing in 1841 states: 'In reading the history of nations, we find that like individuals they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness when they care not what they do.

We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, until their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. ....Men, it has been....said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly and one by one.'

The author could have been writing about Batswana in Botswana today. Batswana currently have their minds on the 'umbrella.' Umbrella' was the opposition coalition project, intended to oust the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) from power it has held since 1966. Botswana, a multi-party democracy fondly dubbed the 'shining example of democracy in Africa' by outside observers holds regular free elections. Although free, they are not fair because of unlevel playing ground. The BDP election campaigns are funded by the business community and as ruling party, enjoys advantage of incumbency. Nonetheless opposition parties elsewhere, have won against the odds and the opposition  could win here except for their excess number and perennial instability.

Recognising their weakness as independent entities, the opposition parties have occasionally tried to cobble a united front of one kind or another without success. After the 2009 general elections, once again, inspired by the massive 47 percent of the popular combined opposition vote and buoyed by a hefty split in the BDP, they revisited the ideal of a coalition to avoid vote-splitting in 2014. The umbrella was conceived.

One sensed the immense popularity of the project with four opposition parties negotiating to contest  elections under umbrella. The private media gave the project publicity; the unprecedented public sector strike, suspended after eight weeks confrontation between public servants and government, weighed in favour of umbrella and regime change; opposition moral support for strikers and flagrant distortion of workers' demands churned by the state media, snowballed the antipathy of some sections of the population against regime and helped to sell the project. Impact of developments on community psyche was palpable. Batswana foretasted a political transformation away from the arrogant, corrupt and autocratic BDP at the 2014 polls.

It was thus a shock when the media reported: 'The process of co-operation of opposition parties under the umbrella model which was launched by the BCP, BMD, BNF and BPP in April 2011 has not succeeded due to disagreement over the allocation of constituencies,' read the statement. 'The process has therefore come to an end.'

The statement sparked off a cacophony of comment. Angry letter writers denounced the leaders and parties for failure to reach agreement; political analysts, media editorials and commentators took a swipe at individual leaders for their 'selfishness, greed, big brother mentality, untrustworthiness and other peccadilloes.' The blame game is in full swing and nasty. Opposition leaders were expected to deliver, but failed. Unfortunately most of the comment and criticism is misinformed, foggy, speculative,  baseless and mischievous. My favourite novelist, Charles Dickens writes in 'Hard Times:' 'Now, what I want is, facts. Teach these boys and girls nothing but Facts.Facts alone are wanted in life. Plant nothing else, and root out everything else....Stick to Facts, sir!'

Bashi Mothusi in his column, Realpolitik , Telegraph, January 11, 2012, writes inter alia: '...The BMD is not led by political lightweights. It is led by intelligent political schemers who know how political battles are fought and won.They can make life difficult for their opponents.' With all due respect, what political battles has the BMD fought and won in their brief 18 months?  It is intriguing also to read him on the BNF and BCP, 'hiding behind their fingers,' without motivating the assertion nor contrasting those  who bury their heads in the sand like ostriches!

The umbrella project collapsed from failure of parties to agree in negotiation. Negotiation is a process of conferring, discussing and resolving issues of mutual interest on the basis of give and take. The Facts from the negotiation table of project umbrella indicate that two parties shifted their original positions while one refused to budge from its 'incumbency' gambit. What type of negotiation is that? 

I am aware Mothusi is contemptuous of the alleged claims by BNF and BCP on entitlement to certain constituencies by virtue of their share of the popular vote in those seats. Such quibble is misplaced. Some constituencies are marginal in the light of these parties' 2009 documented popular support.

The  parties, have a better chance of winning such seats, than BMD, unless someone can tell us the previous winner being BDP, is interchangeable with BMD! Commentators must pose the question, 'What were the parties negotiating in aid of, if not for allocation of seats on the basis of their relative strength in those seats?

Incumbency principle is based on that, Isn't it? Sans such assumption, negotiation would be redundant. A simple, arbitrary formula of one-for-me-one-for-you-one for-him would have sufficed and precious eight months of haggling would have been avoided!Some commentators need to be taken to task for their cynicism that some parties displayed big brother attitude. When? How? Where? Facts? We admit collapse of umbrella was traumatic.

Nonetheless we owe it to ourselves to evaluate the project soberly and objectively, in order to exploit the experience of the present in the future. Who knows some never-say-die community member(s) may be lurking around to revive project and could find a ready-made learning curve? By all means let us bash hopeless, selfish leaders on facts based on hard evidence, not on flimsy fantasy based on fiction.