Statistics were against Montsho

| Friday August 17, 2012 00:00

Amantle Montsho arrived in London as the reigning 400 metres world champion, courtesy of her run at the World Championships in Daegu, South Korea, in 2011. She had won gold at the event and went on to dominate the 2012 Samsung Diamond League, which she currently leads. This made her an overwhelming favourite to pick at least a bronze medal at the London 2012 Olympic Games. But statistics, from the time she won gold in Daegu to her last Diamond League race in London, reveals Montsho had the sixth best time of the year when she went to London.

Heading to London, the top placed 400m runner was Russian, Antonina  Krivoshapka with a time of 49.16 secs.

She however, went on to finish a disappointing sixth in the final of the Olympics.  Sanya Richards-Ross, who won gold in London, had the second best time of the year with 49.28secs achieved when she beat Montsho in the Diamond League in Eugene.

Another Russian, Yulia Gushchina was tied for second with the same time as Richards-Ross. Richards-Ross and Krivoshapka appear again in number four and five with 49.39 and 49.43secs respectively. Montsho's best in 2012 was 49:54secs, ran in Benin where she sat a new national record. It effectively placed her as the fourth best 400m runner in 2012 and ironically she finished fourth at the Olympics.

Montsho's congested schedule since Daegu has been blamed for her poor run at the Olympic finals. Montsho participated at the All Africa Games in Maputo late in 2011 before a hectic schedule saw her take part in five Diamond League races while her rivals who finished above her in London, participated in two, at most.

On May 19, Montsho was in Shangai, China for her first Diamond League race of the year where she came second and the three medal winners in London were absent. Montsho competed in the Eugune leg in June and came second to Richards-Ross, the only time the two competed against each other in the Diamond League this year.

American, Trotter Deedee who won bronze in London was fifth while silver medallist, Christine Ohuruogo did not take part. It was Deedee and Richards-Ross' first Diamond League races of the year. The third Diamond League race took Montsho to Oslo, Norway, and she emerged top but Deedee, Richards-Ross and Ohuruogo were absent.

In the next race in Paris, France, Montsho was clear of both Ohuruogo, who made her first start in the Diamond League, and Deedee. She won in a time of 49.77secs while Ohuruogo showed intent with a seasonal best of 50.59secs, as she was returning to fitness. Richards-Ross was not present in Paris.  The last Diamond League race before the Olympics was in London with Ohurougo continuing her recovery with a seasonal best of 50:42secs, which meant she was picking at the right time. Montsho was second in a time of 50:56secs an indication she was slowing down from her sub-50secs which she had previously hit consistently during the year. Richards-Ross and Deedee did not participate in the race.  There was a collective view that Montsho had participated in far too many races, including the African Championships, which might have led to burn-out.

At the end of the Diamond League races it meant Montsho had participated in all five races, while Deedee took part in three.  Ohuruogo ran in two while Richards-Ross had only one race. While Richards-Ross and Ohuruogo beat Montsho before the Olympics, the only surprise in the top three in London was perhaps American, Deedee who struggled through the season and had the 13th best time of the year going to London. The surprise absence on the medals' list would be Russia'S Krivoshapka who had arrived in London as the best 400m runner this year.

In contrast to Montsho's situation, Nijel Amos' silver was expected, if the 2012 statistics were used as a barometer. Going into London, Amos' time of 1:41:73secs achieved in July was only second best to David Rudisha's.

The Kenyan finished first with Amos coming second, while another Kenyan, Timothy Kitum who had an individual third best time of the year, also came third at the Olympics. This ensured there were no surprises in that race although few gave the Botswana runner a medal opportunity.

Isaac Makwala was way done the list in the 400m and expectedly went out in the heats. Oteng Oteng, despite being an African champion, was placed outside the top 10 of the world rankings, which meant his medal prospects were slim.