Opinion polls favour Banda in presidential race

ARTHUR SIMUCHOBA
Correspondent | Friday September 9, 2011 00:00

In Lusaka supporters of the governing Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) and the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) last week clashed over the tearing down of campaign posters.  The disturbance closed down business in one part of the town and police had to restore order.

There are campaign posters everywhere and candidates are competing to be heard. They are on radio, television and make as many appearances as they can. Throughout the country, there are rallies and other campaign meetings and competition between parties and candidates is stiff and getting stiffer. There can be no telling for sure who is ahead.

The main competition is between the MMD and the PF with the United Party for National Development (UPND) running third. In terms of campaigning, the MMD is well ahead. It has a formidable and well-oiled campaign machine and is basing its campaign on its achievements in office. But the PF is also chasing. It is wielding an axe over the ruling party. It has support, some goodwill and is doing what it can with its limited resources to give the ruling party competition.  It has adopted the tactic of trying to unsettle the MMD by filing various applications against it in the courts.  But that has not so far failed to slow down the campaign or momentum towards the election nor has it convinced observers that the PF has a chance of winning.

Most recent opinion polls and projections give the victory, however slender, to President Rupiah Banda and his governing MMD. The latest such prediction came from the Standard Bank Group of South Africa that has said the breakup of the opposition alliance of the PF and the UPND should give the advantage to Banda and the MMD.

It further noted that the improving economy will be a factor in his favour as will be the success of the farmer input programme, which subsidises basic agricultural inputs for small-scale farmers. Zambia has recorded surplus harvests of maize, the staple food in the last three seasons.

'The buoyant nature of the Zambian economy will further support Banda's popularity, with GDP per capita growth accelerating since he came into power,' states the report.

'The incumbent is also likely to ride on the success of the agricultural input subsidy programme which has provided considerable support to small-scale farmers, while ensuring three consecutive years of bumper cereal harvests.'

It said the opposition was likely to criticise government for seeming to lose the resolve to fight corruption and would seek support among those who feel left out by the improving economy.

'(Michael) Sata has been the most vocal in this regard and will offer most opposition to President Banda. Our core scenario remains that Banda and his party the MMD will emerge as winners of the 2011 elections,' it said.

It predicted a peaceful election 'Perhaps the key risk will be around acceptance of the results by the losing party. Zambia's legal framework does provide means for election results to be challenged, as was the case in 2008 when a verification exercise was ordered by the Electoral Commission after a complaint from the PF.  The available legal recourse is likely to prove sufficient to ward off mass action should the election result be disputed,' the report said. It was only the third such prediction as the election draws near.

Another poll by the company Synovate Research projected a victory for Banda with 42 percent of the vote with Sata trailing him at 37 percent and the UPND's Hikainde Hichilema third with 21 percent.

The poll was based on the Population Proportion Size (PPS) sampling method on 1,463 respondents covering all nine provinces who were chosen randomly.

An earlier projection by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) also predicted a victory by Banda and went further to say that a victory by PF leader Sata would come with some risks because of his populist stance.

The PF is campaigning on the platform of putting 'more money in the pockets 'of the electorate. The EIU said that could prove difficult to implement due to fiscal constraints and the voters would then feel cheated, which could lead to unrest.

It particularly feared unrest on the mines. It also said Sata was unclear on the key issue of mining taxes and his statements that Zambians should own up to 25 percent shares in all companies operating in the country had caused concern among foreign investors and if he were to come to power they would need reassurances.

Further, that Sata had come through as 'fairly heavy-handed' in governance issues, which could lead to a Malawi-style situation where heavy-handed governance had led to the suspension of aid and friction with development partners. It came at a time when the PF was ramping up its media campaign with adverts detailing how it would put 'more  money in your pockets.' The EIU showed that to be essentially a false promise and its report was well publicised by the state-owned media.

It was a body blow delivered by a credible international organisation. But the PF has not been put off at all.  Its leader has been in many parts of the country. He has recently been campaigning in the Southern Province - the stronghold of the UPND and where he stands little chance.

He has already worked the Eastern and  North-Western provinces where he addressed several campaign rallies.  In the mineral-rich North-Western Province his message was that the people of the area were not benefiting from the mines and that he would ensure they did if he was elected.

Campaigning is expected to accelerate as election day draws nearer. (Sila Press Agency)