Battle for Shashemooke is on tomorrow

EDWARD BULE
Correspondent | Friday February 25, 2011 00:00

 

The vacancy was caused by the death of the area councillor last year.

For the past few months, politicians have turned Shashemooke into their second homes doing everything possible to persuade every eligible voter, not only to go and vote, but to vote 'properly' tomorrow.

With three parties and three candidates, there is no doubt that the people of Shashemooke are spoilt for choice in the by-election. The Botswana National Front (BNF), Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) and Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) will be represented by Odirile Ngenda, Silent Tlale and Isaac Mabechu respectively.

The outcome of the by-election will no doubt be influenced by a number of factors, including the personalities of the respective candidates, their eloquence, the image of the party nationally, the availability of resources for the contesting parties and their candidates, the state of development in the ward, and the understanding and acceptance of party policies and programmes. Some peoples' voting behavior will be influenced by their background.

Those overly partisan, vote only when one of the aspirants has compelling qualities, like visibility in community activities or charisma. The BPP candidate scores high marks on these qualities, as he is associated with a number of developments in the ward, including the community hall. From the political rallies to the debates among the three candidates recently, Tlale is way ahead in terms of eloquence. Inexperienced in politics, the BDP candidate is unimpressive in respect of eloquence.

Regarding image, both the BDP and BPP are doing badly. The BDP suffered a major split last year. This might have affected its electoral majority in Shashemooke. The BPP, for its part, is experiencing serious instability with its president reportedly about to resign or get expelled by the central committee. The BNF is no doubt the most united party nationally among the three.

With respect to resources, the BDP tops the list. Controlling four out of the seven wards in the constituency, the BDP is counting on their majority councillors and Members of Parliament (MPs) in the neighbouring constituencies and beyond to contribute even financially towards the elections. A large number of vehicles and personnel will also be available tomorrow to 'encourage' the people to go and vote. Although the BNF is only one councillor less than the BDP in the constituency, it does not have much presence in the neighbouring constituencies from which to draw personnel especially on the last days. They control the remaining three wards in the constituency.

While morale in both the BDP and BNF is high, it is very low in the BPP. With very little assistance from either the party itself or individual members, the BPP candidate is running an exerting campaign. He, however, draws sustenance from the fact that the BCP, has thronged the ward and has been helping out for some weeks now.  

Experts say that, on average, people vote, not on the basis of their knowledge and acceptance of party policies but due to their background. The background of the voter has got a big influence on his/her voting habits. Says Allan Ball: 'Policy issues have little effect on how the electorate uses his vote', adding that voters inherit their loyalties from their families usually based on such issues as social class.

'Bridget Jeremiah, who says she is new in Shashemooke, will vote for the BDP; her party from home at Pandamatenga in the Chobe constituency. Karabo voted in 2009 and is determined to vote again. She comes from Serowe where she always voted for the BDP.

The sincerity of the BDP has come under fire from some voters in Shashemooke.

A 27-year-old woman, who could not disclose her name for fear of reprisals, as she is a public officer, says she will vote for the BNF because she can not trust the BDP to bring developments to Shashemooke.

Although eligible, some people are yet to decide who they are going to vote for. Mphago Gola and his wife Ntshesane Gaolaolwe say they will decide once inside the polling booth.

Nono Motswedi is stuck between party and candidate. Having voted for BNF candidate Odirile Ngenda, when he was an independent candidate in the last general election, the old man is disappointed that Ngenda has bolted and joined the BNF. As a result, he is still deciding whether to stay with the party or move with Ngenda. 

The state of development in the ward could also work against the BDP.

Samatho Seleu, who nevertheless will vote the ruling party, says she is unhappy with the level of development in the village.

A middle-aged woman, who preferred anonymity, says she has always voted for the BPP. She is disgusted at the water situation, which sometimes compels the villagers to drink from the river. Ntumisang Keabetswe who has variously voted for the BPP and BDP in the past has decided to change in favor of the BNF in the by-election. She feels short-changed by the BDP, which she says never sticks to its pre-election promises.

The BDP won the ward in 2009 with 409 votes against 259,163 and 63 for the independent candidate, the BPP and BNF respectively. Clearly, with the 894 valid votes, 409 went to the BDP while the rest went to the opposition, which includes the independent candidate who is now running on a BNF ticket. Mathematically, the opposition is ahead of the BDP by a healthy margin of 80 votes. With a candidate of Mabechu's calibre and a divided opposition, the BDP looks certain to win the ward albeit by a smaller margin.