Kenya's Constitution Referendum: Lessons for Zimbabwe

* Ocean Marambanyika | Monday September 20, 2010 00:00

Zimbabwe was however the leader in starting massive election-related violence since its 2002 Presidential elections. Kenya followed suit by producing its own election-related violence in 2008.

However when Kenya assumed the lead it never stopped. It went on to establish a coalition government and Zimbabwe followed suit. It appointed a Prime Minister and Zimbabwe followed again. Now it has voted on a Constitutional Referendum. Will Zimbabwe follow suit and if so when?  What can Zimbabwe learn from the recent constitutional referendum held in Kenya? A lot I suppose.

Elections And ViolenceNobody knew if the elections for a new constitution in Kenya were going to be peaceful or not. There was just hope that they become peaceful. Most in the international media were waiting for any possibility. Despite some challenges the election environment was far much better than expected. I saw results of the constitution referendum on the major international news channels.

It seemed on this point Kenya had moved a step forward. Again Zimbabwe is debating having its own constitutional referendum at any time from now. But what are the chances that a referendum in Zimbabwe will be peaceful and fair? It is doubtful if an election in Zimbabwe at this point can be fair and peaceful. The general public and the business community in Zimbabwe are now fearing elections. They fear losing the newly gained false sense of economic security. Again the constitutional referendum held in Kenya can provide Zimbabwe with the courage to hold a constitutional referendum now. The leadership in Kenya discussed and had a position and allowed people to chose what they wanted. The challenge is upon Zimbabwe to do the same. Zimbabwe has big lessons to learn from Kenya on this aspect.

Presidential PowersIt is reported that the new proposed constitution for Kenya greatly reduces the powers of the President. If this is realistically true, then Kenya is in the right direction. There is no doubt that such an arrangement is needed in Zimbabwe. It is high time that leaders do not govern African countries as personal properties. Rather people should have a say in matters that concern the nation.

In Kenya, it can be seen that President Daniel Arap Moi was in power for almost  24 years and he used the constitution which Kenya now want to see changed.  In Zimbabwe, President Mugabe has been in power for almost 30 years and the people in Zimbabwe have the same sentiments as their Kenyan counterparts. Zimbabweans want a new constitution but only under free and fair conditions of voting for it. Again big brother Kenya seems to be helpful here.

The Land IssueBoth Zimbabwe and Kenya were white settler colonies as opposed to peasant trade colonies. Settler colonies were designed for permanent colonisation and permanent occupation by the settlers. Peasant trade colonies were designed to supply labor forces and other requirements to the settler colonies.  Due to that fact most arable and good lands in Kenya and Zimbabwe were lost to settlers. Today land is a question of destiny for these two nations.

Whereas the Kenyan land dimensions include local ethnic related ownership disputes, in Zimbabwe it is purely a question of disputes between large scale white commercial farmers and the state. Of course in Kenya the state has also issues to solve with the white large land occupiers.  Despite the slight differences between sources of land disputes in Kenya and Zimbabwe, the newly proposed constitution provides key lessons for Zimbabwe. Land laws that govern ethics of land ownership are very critical in order to avoid long term conflicts in both Kenya and Zimbabwe.  Zimbabwe will wait and see what Kenya will do in reality regarding such land laws. Again Kenya provides the lead here.

On Devolution IssuesOne of the issues gaining momentum in the debate for a new constitution in Zimbabwe is the question of devolution of powers to provinces. Kenya has a population of around 39.8 million people (UN 2009) and Zimbabwe has around 12.5 million people. Kenya is around 582,000 square kilometers and Zimbabwe is around 390,000 square kilometers. Zimbabwe has two major ethnic groups (Shona 87% and Ndebele 12%), whilst Kenya has many. Does Zimbabwe need to devolve powers under such circumstances?

Can Zimbabwe follow Kenya in this scenario? Devolution seems to be a suspicious project which can have long term threats to the survival on nationhood in Africa.    There is need for more carefully framed studies on the pros and cons of devolution in developing countries.  When a country is developed, devolution might work. But the problem is that for some people devolution presents a path to development. This issue is therefore a dilemma. 

Can Kenya lead Zimbabwe on devolution? For now, No! On other issues Kenya is leading already.  Such is how Kenya is becoming a big brother of Zimbabwe. But Kenya beware, Zimbabwe will overtake you again sooner than later!

*  Ocean Marambanyika, from Zimbabwe, is a Peace, Security and Conflict Expert in the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Oslo, Norway.