BMD goes AWOL

| Friday September 10, 2010 00:00

“It is beyond doubt that both BMD and COPE were formed as a perceived manifestation of the fear arising from the leaders of their parent organisations and nothing else...Much as the ANC dealt a hammer blow to COPE and the other opposition parties in SA’s elections, an opportunity will soon present itself in the Tonota North bye elections where BDP members are urged to once again show the opposition that they (BDP) mean serious business”.

As I had predicted and urged, the BDP once again impressed upon the nation that they mean serious business by soundly trouncing a combined opposition that had Dr Habaudi Hobona as their candidate.  That the BDP defeated the combined opposition with BMD ‘heavily’ involved makes me more than ever before, convinced that BMD and COPE are alike.  Below I expound on my thinking.  

Prior to the bye elections there was excitement from the opposition block that BMD will add value to them and cause to weaken the BDP.

From the onset, the BMD leadership made it known their decision to support the BCP candidate and thereafter were supposedly engaged in campaigning for the BCP candidate. The million dollar question now is (in light of the voting patterns at the Tonota North bye election) whether the entrance of the BMD into the opposition fold would bolster the opposition drive and weaken the BDP or whether the BDP’s standing will remain solid and constant unaffected by BMD’s formation.  Interrogating the voting pattern in Tonota North from the 2009 general elections when BMD was not yet in the picture to the just ended bye elections when they (BMD) were supposedly in the picture, will go a long way in addressing this million dollar question. What is critical for our purposes is the percentage vote of the BDP relative to that of the BCP in 2009 and in the just ended 2010 bye election.

By looking at the percentage vote of the BDP relative to that of the BCP, we shall be able to assess whether the BMD contributed significantly to opposition cooperation at the expense of the BDP, or whether the BMD did not affect in anyway the standing of the BDP. Should the BDP’s vote relative to BCP decline, then we can assume that BMD support has added up figures to the BCP eating up the support base of the BDP.

However, should the BDP’s vote relative to the BCP remain constant, undoubtedly then BMD would have failed to boost the BCP and at the same time failed to shake the BDP support base.  The latter will be very significant because it will prove that the BMD’s entry into the opposition fold has created problems for the opposition than the BDP.  This will be telling that the proliferation of opposition parties hurts the opposition Parties more as they compete for the same pool of constant and stagnant opposition support base.

In the 2009 general elections, the BDP’s percentage share of vote relative to that of the BCP stood at around 65 percent BDP to 35 percent BCP (5811 to 3067). Coincidentally, the results show us that in the just ended bye election, the BDP’s percentage vote relative to that of the BCP still stands at around 65 percent for BDP to BCP’s 35 percent (4575 to 2617).  The coincidence speaks volumes because it shows that the views of Tonota North voters towards the BDP, from the 2009 general elections up to the time of the bye election have not changed at all despite the formation of BMD.  The results would have been good news for the opposition had the BCP significantly narrowed the gap as that would imply that the formation of the BMD was at the expense of the BDP.

Unfortunately the results point otherwise, and this spells doom and disaster for the BMD and as much for opposition. 

In pointing towards the BMD disaster, results tell us that despite all the noise and hullabaloo, Batswana view the Party more as a fashion label than a political party and will continue parading in the orange souvenir and memento much as they would the alkasi brand. In so doing, Batswana are quite aware and taking a conscious decision noting that there is a difference between a political party and a fashion label. In short, wearing BMD regalia does not necessarily mean one is a member of the BMD.

The results above further buttress the reasoning that indeed the BMD and COPE are alike as I had noted in the July 2010 article: “In the run up to the South Africa elections questions began to emerge as to whether there is any substance to COPE or is it really just a manifestation of the fear arising from a Jacob Zuma presidency.  A certain Professor Sipho Seepe, president of the Institute of Race Relations opined that COPE exists only to ensure that Jacob Zuma does not become President.  He went further that his belief was that COPE will not exist beyond the elections.  One can logically conclude, much as Professor Seepe that the existence of BMD in the same vein as COPE will be short-lived”. In light of the foregoing I put my head on the chopping board; this is the beginning of the end for BMD.

As for the opposition, their worst fears of the negative impact caused by the formation of another opposition Party have now been confirmed.  I am more than certain that in their negotiations with then BDP members who were on the verge of forming BMD, opposition political Parties particularly the BCP and BNF were trying to dissuade them against forming another opposition party but instead tried to convince them to join already existing ones.  The mathematics and logic is simple and straight forward.  With an opposition popular vote adding up to around 43 percent shared mainly between the BCP and BNF, any addition within the ranks of the opposition fold would mean splitting the 43 percent amongst three parties thus a reduction in the piece of cake for all two opposition Parties.

For argument sake if the BNF and BCP shared the 43 percent equitably, they would each net about 20 percent popular vote. However if a third purportedly major opposition force joins the ranks and gets a fair share of the 43 percent, each of the three parties will then get around 14 percent of the popular vote. This will be a major regression on the part of the two older main opposition Parties. Unfortunately the results of the Tonota bye election point to a solid BDP popular vote which stood at 53 percent in the last general elections. That BDP still retains its popular vote means that unfortunately for the opposition Parties they share the 43 percent amongst themselves. This is dreadful news for the BNF and BCP and they know it.

In conclusion, the Tonota North bye election results have bolstered and strengthened the BDP. The BDP will most certainly recapture most if not all the seats they lost to the BMD. This is not at all farfetched when we consider that the BCP suffered the same fate at the hands of the BNF when they decamped with 11 of the BNF 13 seats only to lose a significant number in the general elections that followed.  The runaway ‘BM Domkrag’ MPs have a stark choice if they want to save their political careers. It is either they abandon the sinking BMD shipwreck and go back to their beloved BDP or they kiss bye to their political careers.  It will be a sad end, a tragic comedy for the likes of Sir G, Bots, OD, to mention a few, who still have a bright political future as long as they are in the right party, the BDP. Tsholetsa BM Domkrag!

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