Scale could tilt in Banda's favour next year

ARTHUR SIMUCHOBA
Correspondent | Tuesday October 26, 2010 00:00

On paper Banda, who is likely to be the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) presidential candidate, stands a chance because as the 2011 election fast approaches, the opposition alliance of the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND) has not agreed on who should be the presidential candidate.

Presently each of the two parties in the alliance is preparing to field its own candidate just like in the past, thereby giving incumbent President Banda, a chance to romp home to victory.

Yet, going by election results since 2001, a presidential candidate backed by the two largest opposition parties, the PF and UPND, that make up the opposition alliance would easily win the race. The arithmetic is clear.

But agreement on who between the two leaders - the PF's, Michael Sata and the UPND's, Hakainde Hichilema - should be opposition's standard-bearer seems extremely elusive.

Whenever asked when the issue that has been hanging for some time now will be settled in view of the virtual unanimity in the ruling party that Banda will be their candidate, the response from both camps is:  'We will cross that bridge when we get to it'.

But as the election rapidly approaches, it seems increasingly clear that for both it is 'a bridge too far' and that none of them is actually ready, willing or even contemplating to cross it at all.

If, as they say, actions speak louder than words, then recent events in both camps create no basis for optimism that the opposition will be united.

Quite to the contrary, the alliance would seem to be slowly but effectively unravelling over mainly that question.  There has been some cohesion in the alliance members in some by-elections where they have fielded and campaigned  for a single candidate. But nothing beyond that.

Over the issue of the presidential candidate there is a great deal of latent rivalry. 

During April, for instance, campaign badges with the portrait of the PF leader, Sata, began to circulate in Lusaka and the Copperbelt. They continue to, and they name him as the PF presidential candidate. They make no reference to any alliance. That is by no means the only pointer.  

As early as January, similar campaign materials for the UPND leader circulated on the Copperbelt.  

The manufacturers were obliged to reveal who had placed the orders and when. It was clear they were official. Again they made no reference to any alliance or pact of any sort.

There is an even bigger problem among the party rank and file of both parties.

Supporters make no secret of the fact that they will not accept their leader to play 'second fiddle' in the alliance and the leaders seem incapable or unwilling to prevail on them and would have little time to heal any resultant wounds.

It is clear that a single candidate would lead to a damaging upheaval in the opposition ranks and that he cannot possibly rely on the undivided support of the opposition.

Many from both parties say they would in the case of their man not being that candidate, back the ruling MMD candidate rather than one from the opposition. That is how deep the feelings run.

There are already several reports of back stabbing among the putative allies. It is, for instance, commonly said that the insistence by the National Constitution Conference (NCC) that every presidential candidate should be a degree holder was fuelled largely by UPND delegates in order to exclude the PF leader, who is believed to have no degree, from the race. The UPND denies it but given the latent  rivalry it is by no means too far-fetched.

Outwardly, the two parties insist that their alliance or electoral pact is driven by the people. But so far, there is little to indicate that the leaders are ready to bow to the people's wishes.

The possibility of having more than one presidential candidate from the opposition in 2011 can no longer   be discounted.

That will make the election a real uphill battle for the fragmented opposition, once more.

In the circumstances Banda, who assumed office after the death of former Southern African Development Community (SADC) chairman Levy Mwanawasa in August 2008, is confident of victory and has publicly stated that he is ready for the 2011 showdown. (Sila Press Agency)