BMD: Fresh coffee or old wine in new bottles

LAWRENCE OOKEDITSE
Correspondent | Friday May 14, 2010 00:00

Those who call in have shown support for the party. Opinions in and around little gatherings also seem in support of the 'Orange' as some have christened it. Whether an 'Orange revolution' will ensue is still open to debate, that the political landscape in this republic has been significantly altered though, appears clear.

Talking to a few people also reveals bits of support for the new movement. 'I do not have a problem with them being formed. They can go ahead. After all they wanted to destroy our party but they should have learnt from COPE. They thought they could destroy the ANC but they failed. Tell me who in that party can actually compete with Khama,' a BDP member argues.

He further says the founders of the BMD are selfish and they are not doing it for the country but for themselves. 'These people want power and they realised at the moment they cannot have it. I have worked with some of these guys for some time and I know they love the BDP ideals,' he says.  He however does not shed light into the arguments by the breakaway faction that the party has lost direction under the new leadership. Also, when asked if discipline has not been meted out selectively in the BDP to warrant discontent he simply says that 'We cannot deny that, but forming a new party is not the solution'.

Bolokang Molemogi does not share his sentiments. He argues that the BMD is a product of increasing intolerance in the BDP and that it is relevant to the problems Batswana face. 'If you are no longer wanted in the BDP what do you do? Do you stay and worship another person or leave? I would choose to leave. It is a free country and people are free to form political parties'.

But should parties be formed simply because we live in a free country? 'Not really, but the point is if you no longer feel welcome in a political party then it is only fair that you join another one where you are welcome or form a new one. Personally, I see nothing wrong with the BMD and I am going to join its youth league,' he responds.  'Also, I know some of you guys will simply pour scorn on them but this party appears serious. You look at the people in it and you realise that they are serious people. Some of those in the BDP support it but they are scared to show their faces yet. Just wait and see,' Molemogi says.  The BMD comes into a competitive environment. If they are to leave with a good number of current BDP MPs they would become the official opposition and in politics that will not be viewed kindly by the current opposition.

'Hey man, it is a tough one. We encouraged them to leave but now we know they are competitors. Some of you may even choose to join them. The overall picture we see though is that they are weakening the BDP and that's what we want to see,' a BCP activist at the University of Botswana says. He hopes they eventually become a part of an opposition alliance.

'It would be great if they could decamp in large numbers and later on join us. So, if their breakaway is part of a greater strategy to join forces with the rest of us it becomes a good development. We do not fear them because we wish to see them as people concerned about the increasing authoritarian grip on power and the loss of established ways of doing things in this country,' he argues.

In the midst of the polarities though is the stark truth and reality for the BMD that they have to hit the ground running to ensure survival. But how have other breakaway movements fared? In the case of Botswana, the impact player in politics today is the Botswana Congress Party, a breakaway movement from the Botswana National Front.

So far, the BCP has strengthened its support base and seems relatively at ease and poised for more gains with time. However, the fate of the Botswana Independence Party (BIP), United Action Party, the Independence Freedom Party (IFP), and the Botswana Progressive Union (BPU) provide reason for cautious optimism. What should the BMD do? The best bet is to say they will figure it out for themselves but a few hints will have to be taken heed of if they are to survive and become a force to be reckoned with.

Kenneth Good in his 1996 article 'Towards popular participation in Botswana' quotes President Ketumile Masire arguing that the BDP has won the past general elections largely due to 'party unity, cohesion, visionary and mature leadership, well conceived and implementable policies and programmes to mention just a few'. Good has since become a major critic of the way things are run under the BDP government. That piece though, gives considerable insight into some of the factors necessary to win elections in Botswana.  It means the BMD will have to offer the same or better to stand a chance at survival. Good for them is that the above thesis cannot be said to fully hold for the BDP today especially with the split. Even more serious is the issue of finance. One of the major factors often cited for the failure of opposition parties is their funding. While the BDP enjoy privileged support from certain companies, others do not readily have it.  As well, while no one has yet quantified the worth of the BDP in terms of financial investments, the property the party owns, both movable and immovable, is immense and its value is probably in the multimillions.

Financial backup for the new party becomes an immediate concern.  Also serious is the need to convince the people as to the relevance of the party. Public opinion does not always translate into active support and as such the movement has to go on a countrywide tour to justify its existence. Being a recent formation they have a duty to justify their creation, unfortunately.

The goodwill appears there from many people though. Perhaps the publicising of the party constitution and programmes will crystallise public opinion into active support. Their survival and relevance though closely tied with an alliance with opposition forces.  In theory, they appear to be the missing link in uniting opposition forces. After all, they cannot justifiably be said to offer any different set of political ideas. The far right is not quite existent in this country but the BDP can loosely be said to occupy it.

MELS is perhaps the sole representative of the far left, with the BNF coming a yard off on the left. The only other political space is the centre, perhaps the most appealing position for modern day political organisations. The BCP currently occupies this space comfortably.

Given that the BMD would not quite wish to be a replica of the BDP or a left leaning organisation, it appears they belong to the centre or at worst the centre right. I am not suggesting anything but an alliance with the BCP, led by a relatively 'fresh man' in Dumelang Saleshando, if he becomes president, appears a close possibility.  Also a feasible move towards an alliance with a BNF led possibly by another 'freshman' in Duma Boko, again, if he wins.

Beyond the July congresses politics will become alive. Relatively young people are coming into the fray and pushing for a voice and this could mark the end of an era for conservative and traditionalistic dominance in Botswana politics.