BMD reshapes Botswana's politics

TSHIRELETSO MOTLOGELWA
Staff Writer | Friday July 23, 2010 00:00

 

Like some sort of public letting no one cannot keep their eyes off, the few surviving hard core supporters of the party cannot even afford to exercise some mourning, self consolation or motivation in private.

On Wednesday afternoon, the administrator of the BDP Facebook page, on which the BDP faithful often come to motivate each other amidst the unfolding implosion, put up a new update, 'New members registered this past week, 28'.

At the end of the update, the administrator put another line, perhaps an afterthought... 'A E JEKE'.

Such has been the abject and very public collapse that within five minutes of the BDP putting up that status, some spoiler had gate-crashed the party, putting up a comment, 'How many resigned? Lol' 

Patrick Masimolole, who left last week's Parliament a BDP MP, yesterday afternoon walked past the ruling party sitting area and made for the opposition benches.

 Last week a victorious Botsalo Ntuane ominously told the BDP in Parliament, 'Re tlile go ba tsaya one by one'. They say hard times never kill, but when the BDP is done with this phase in its history it will never be quite as alive as it has been.

The collapse of the BDP has been catalogued by many analysts and journalists. After all, there are now about seven MPs, six of whom belonged to the ruling party, who are now quite proudly and vociferously opposition.

However, most ominous is the spectre of yet more defections hanging over the party faithful like a ready guillotine held by a maniac which the BDP has to live with from now onwards.

But the emergence of the BMD will have long lasting effects on not just the BDP but the rest of the opposition parties as well, whether as separate parties or in any potential coalition.

This week, both the Botswana National Front and Botswana Congress Party conducted successful congresses and changes of leadership resulting from the elections.

The BNF went to the village where it was founded and attained not just new peace but potential revival.

Boko even extended a blanket welcome to anyone who was suspended in the last five years, and there has been a number of them.

Meanwhile, in Maun, Dumelang Saleshando, accepting the new top post in his party, celebrated a much more reinvigorated organisation.

'We have now merged and formed a political party that is ready to govern Botswana'. There is a 'feel good' aura about the opposition at the moment. However, the emergence of the BMD has not just put a challenge on the BDP by taking its MPs, it has completely overturned the old order of opposition politics.

Yesterday, after Masimolole confirmed his departure from the ruling party, it was time to rearrange the seating in the National Assembly.

The Leader of the Opposition, Olebile Gaborone, had to vacate his seat which was occupied by Guma Moyo. So, after senseless squabbling between the BNF and BCP over who is the most dominant of the opposition parties, that debate is dead now.

And no more will a member of the BNF MP corps be driven in a black BMW 7-Series. The BNF is faced with a new question now. It will have to shed the old adage: 'We are the biggest opposition party in the country' among its taglines. The BCP is also being challenged by this new scenario.

The party has been to some extent a PR project, working its political message through strategic use of the media. In other words, the BCP's progress could have never happened in this way if it did not possess the skill to manage its public relations strategy.

The work of Saleshando in Parliament, with his interventions on issues that may not necessarily be the most important but are the most talked about, indicates a conscious effort to manage the parliamentary intervention for maximum public relations benefit.

The media inevitably played a major role in the growth of the BCP. The BCP has therefore enjoyed more positive coverage than any of the major parties.  But the BMD threatens to deny the BCP that most important of its friends, the journalists.

Being no fool himself, Saleshando recognises this new environment and the specific challenges it poses to his party. 'We must also be aware that the political landscape has become more competitive.  We are not the newest party on offer and therefore we need to re-examine our appeal to the voter,' he warned the party followers in Maun.  

Purely from the standpoint of voter acquisition, BMD threatened every party on the political map. There is no question that it is biting chunks from the BDP. However, a party like the BNF cannot sit back and assume it is not being affected. After all, the BNF has not been able to keep contact with its base for a while and a neutral voter is easy to win.

It may be that the BNF's mass of lonely former BNF supporters may be easy picking for the BMD. We know that in some constituencies there are elements of the BNF who are turning out for the BMD. The BMD is a threat to anyone interested in winning votes.

As the Chinese point out, a challenge is but an opportunity. The emergence of the BMD offers the opposition a myriad of opportunities. Most important is the fact that now the BNF and BCP cannot sit back and enjoy goodwill. Each party will have to work hard to get any extra voter. This may reinvigorate activists who have been lax and taking things for granted. The policy-depth that the BMD seems to have brought - at least when one gleans from their draft policy paper - will also challenge the big two to also polish their policies.

Perhaps it is time for a proper debate on what each party holds for this country. The only danger is that the BDP may become even more irrelevant in all of this.

There is another opportunity too. As talk of opposition unity gains momentum, no one can afford to be seen to be unreasonable in their approach to the talks.

The approach of both the BNF and BCP towards the negotiations would have to be radically different to the somewhat tetchy disposition that the two have always projected in their past encounters. 

Cooperation in the Tonota North by-election seems to be setting the tone but the biggest opportunity of them is that the opposition, with the addition of Masimolole, now commands a total of 18 MPs!

In all this, talk of opposition unity and by extension coalition government, the opposition will have to prove that they can work together in Parliament to challenge the BDP.