Who will succeed Ian Khama as president?

LEKOPANYE MOOKETSI
Correspondent | Friday February 19, 2010 00:00

 

It is an open secret that Vice President Mompati Merafhe will not take over from Khama after 10 years. There is a school of thought that Merafhe will only hold the fort until 2014.

Initially it was felt that Merafhe would only serve for a period of not more than two years after last year's general elections and then the heir would be identified. But a Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) insider said Merafhe will serve the whole five year term as VP. The only reason why Merafhe might not continue as the Vice President after 2014, might have something to do with his advanced age. In 2014, Merafhe will be close to 80 years.

President Khama appointed Merafhe as his deputy following his inauguration in 2008. He re-appointed him to be the Vice President after last year's general elections.

Before Khama made his announcement, it was not clear who was going to be the Vice President. Other names that were bandied were those of former cabinet ministers Jacob Nkate and Neo Moroka. The two men are now out of the picture.

But Khama played his cards close to the chest and only made his pronouncement on the final day.

On the eve of last year's general elections, there was also speculation that Khama might appoint the vice president who is going to succeed him. Names that were mentioned included that of former Minister of Health and World Health Organisation (WHO) official, Joy Pumaphi. But Khama still decided to stick by the man whom he shared army barracks with. Now the big question is, who will take over from Khama?

According to some theories, one of the likely successors to the throne could be Ramadeluka Seretse who is also Khama's cousin. Seretse is currently at number three in government and is a man who is known to be close to Khama. Just like Khama and Merafhe, Seretse has also served in the army and retired at the rank of Brigadier.

According to the grapevine, the idea was that Khama would hand over to Seretse who would at a later stage pass on the baton to Khama's younger brother Tshekedi Khama.

The intense fight last year between the barata-phati and A-team factions of the BDP was said to have been fueled by this succession plan.Members of the barata-phathi faction were said to have been opposed to this succession plan. The Barata-phati have also made it clear that they are against automatic succession.

Another candidate who could get the nod is, the Minister of Wildlife and Tourism, Kitso Mokaila who is also one of Khama's confidants. Like most people in Khama's inner circle, Mokaila is also a former military man. Mokaila might also be favoured because he is from the South. To balance the equation, Khama might be forced to choose a vice president from the South. Since the time when President Sir Ketumile Masire who came from the South, stepped down in 1998, all the presidents have been from the North namely; Serowe. Botswana has had three presidents who were from Serowe, including Khama's father, the late Sir Seretse Khama.

During the era of Khama's predecessors, it was always clear who would take over.

When former President Masire, announced that he was going to step down, it was logical that his next in command, Festus Mogae would take over. There was a smooth transition as Mogae took over from Masire.

The same thing applied when Mogae stepped down.

But President Khama has proved to be his own man and even his leadership style is different from those of his predecessors.

As the BDP leader, his emphasis has been on discipline. But for Khama, indiscipline seems to mean when someone differs with him. Since he took over, Khama has marginalised members of the barata-phati faction and even excluded them from his cabinet. Since Khama took over, more BDP members have seen themselves facing disciplinary action. This has led to some party members being banished. The BDP leadership is still on a witch hunt.

It was during Khama's reign that BDP factions reached their peak. But ironically Khama was roped into politics to quell factions in the BDP.Last year, when the BDP held the Kanye congress, Khama was sympathising with one of the factions.

He was even campaigning for members of the A-team, under the pretext that he was supporting women. Khama said he would not find it easy to work with Daniel Kwelagobe who was contesting the chairman's post.

Khama and other BDP leaders like Nkate and Tebelelo Seretse attacked Kwelagobe in public. But they were never subjected to any disciplinary action. After the Kanye elections, Khama did not want to hear anything about the barata-phathi victory. He diluted the central committee with A-team members and took unilateral decisions.

Even his party went for the general elections more divided than ever before.