Why the Tonota by-elections may lead a to hung parliament

| Friday August 20, 2010 00:00

There are many more changes, which will test our democracy, or to put it differently, lack of it, enters Tonota North by-elections.

Tonota North by-elections are not just like any other, in fact, they may prove to carry as much weight as any general election and this is why; to the BDP, this will be a referendum on their current state of affairs and by extension to the president himself.  A win by any margin will be a subject of spin such as never been seen at Tsholetsa house, and they will be entitled to it because I do not recall any point in the recent or far history that 'Domi' was this vulnerable and confused.

A win in itself of course will not be the only incentive, added to it will be the luxury of beating a unified opposition, there is no better coup.  We all know which 'opposition' in particular they will be referring to, and in case you were wondering, it will have nothing to do with the BCP, who are the main and sole challenger.

My grandmother likes to use the word tjinyembwele, an Ikalanga term, which when loosely translated, refers to a situation which gains a lot of hype at the beginning, but at the same showing signs of backfiring at a later stage, I foresee a lot of those who know Ikalanga at Tsholetsa house using this word in more cases than one, with a sense of arrogance, satisfaction, revenge, caricature and all the emotions, which come with a desperately needed last minute victory.

A victory by any margin will invigorate the mighty BDP,  it will  pour scorn on those 'doomsayers' who dared write its political obituary, and all reconciliatory tone, which was being hacked lately will be immediately abandoned, replaced by an all out ruthless and hawkish offence, which could be hard to deflect.

Those who write about the Vice President say he is a gifted soldier in that kind of war.  If they are correct, then we can understand if the new 'kids on the block' choose to excuse themselves at the first session of parliament after the by-election.  The irony of the whole situation is that, although BMD is not contesting, the fight is technically between itself and its former parent (or brother/sister).  BCP is happy to be either the beneficiary or the sitting duck, either way it helps its course as a 'growing' party.  Another player, who for once will escape unscathed in this potentially bloody war is the old boy; BNF.  I am sure at Kopano, they are as aware as everyone else that their decision not to contest was not so much for the benefit of opposition unity, but more to do with avoiding yet another of those embarrassing habits they had so fondly embraced of late. If there is anyone who hopes opposition not only wins but does so by a convincing margin then it is the Orange movement.  A decisive victory will be a statement of intent, at least from the point of view of the BMD, Tonota afterall, has been the stronghold of the BDP, and at the moment BMD is the only annointed party, which has the sole bragging rights to claim any defection from poor BDP.

Anything other than a decisive victory thus, might leave the BMD at the mercy of 'Domi', and with it bring a halt to this hitherto unstoppable political machine, which has covered in a few weeks what many failed since 1966.

Then enters another player, who has remained a little unnoticed, largely because he/she is sitting on the proverbial fence; the BDP MP's who are yet to make sense of the numbers to either fully commit to the BDP or defect to the newly BMD.  If president Khama is (or was) under the impression that in politics there is loyalty, he is up to a rude awakening to the fact that numbers, and not emotions are the only rules accepted.

Some say, politics is the only game where you can sleep with an enemy, for convenience's sake, and get the blessings of your spouse, I hope they are wrong.

It is possible that some of those 'fence' MP's in the BDP are waiting to use the Tonota North by-election as a political barometer.  Should BDP lose decisively, we might see the real 'exodus' of MP's, of course they won't say they have been waiting for the Tonota North by-elections that sounds so mundane, they will cite 'intolerance' which is 'rife' at BDP, they are lucky they live in a country of very forgiving voters who do not ask many questions.  A loss by a slim margin by BDP or any kind of victory by Fidelis Molao, will keep them 'disciplined' at Tsholetsa, where they will be working hard to see to it that 'mananeo a puso' are being fully-implemented.

On the other hand, an embarrassing defeat to the BDP can then lead to massive floor crossing and ultimately lead to the possibility of a Hung Parliament.  'Hung parliament', a term I must confess, I first took serious just before Britain went to the polls a few months ago.

It was a term, which came to summarise the likely outcome of the elections, only saved by the (un)holy matrimony between the Liberal Democratic and the Conservative parties respectively. A  hung parliament occurs when a legislature has no political party claiming any form of majority in the number of seats.  The system is not in itself a problem, but to a country, which relies on a first-past-the-post-voting system (as ours) it could pose a few challenges.

Our country has never been ruled by a government, which lacked majority in parliament, as such one can imagine the reaction, which that may bring to our politics.

In most mature democracies that is a welcome result as it denies the complacency, which comes with monopoly, but in struggling ones, or to be precise, in Africa that could spell not only confusion, it could breed hostility by the Executive of presidential proportions, either way, we pray that whatever the outcome of  the Tonota North by-elections God will have mercy on the losers and the winners alike.

Tshepo NthoiDublin, Ireland