Odds against BDP in Tonota North?

ISAAC PINIELO
Correspondent | Friday August 13, 2010 00:00

The rallies were meant to launch candidates for the two parties that will slug it out for the parliamentary by-election on September 4. The BCP was first to launch Dr Habaudi Hobona in Borolong on Saturday, followed by the BDP who launched Fidelis Molao in Mathangwane, a few kilometres from Borolong.

The by-election takes place to fill the seat that fell vacant after the death of former Finance Minister and Member of Parliament (MP) Baledzi Gaolathe early this year. In last year's general election, Gaolathe won the constituency by garnering 5,811 against Hobona's 3, 067 votes.

Some observers feel that these differences could have a huge effect on the outcome of the upcoming by-election.That the BCP attracted a huge following, to some proves that it is a force to reckon with in Tonota North.

The turnout was perhaps due to the fact that various opposition parties - the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), Botswana National Front (BNF) and Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) - were rooting for the BCP candidate.

Not only were the opposition bloc active in the launch, but they also pledged to back Hobona in the by-election, come September 4.

BMD official, Wynter Mmolotsi said the BDP has been dominating the Tonota North for some time and he doubted that people would want to vote for it not only in the by-election but in the 2014 general election as well.

'You can see that the BDP is faced with a loss, not only in Tonota North but in the whole country,' said Mmolotsi.

He said the fact that there was disgruntlement and discontentment following the BDP primaries was a sign that the party was headed for defeat. He also noted that a significant number of people have decamped from the BDP, which left it comatose.

While the BDP has also struggled to get the voters' attention during its launch, some observers indicated that Molao might find himself the target of another internal BDP grudge. This is in spite of the fact that five primary election candidates who lost to Molao promised to cooperate with the winner.

Observers suggest that it would be naive to believe word that the losers - Daniel Onkabetse, Lewis Malikongwa, Olifant Mfa, Ipuseng Chikanda and Ali Maano - will cooperate. It is also believed that the supporters for these losers may never accept defeat and there is a likelihood that they may want to revenge by punishing Molao in the by-election.

The opposition cooperation of the BCP, BNF, BMD and BPP is also seen by many as a force to reckon with for the BDP in the upcoming by-election, leading some speculators to predict a heavy loss for the governing party after 44 years of dominance in the area.

However, some BDP officials seem to be jittery about the opposition cooperation in the Tonota North. BDP campaign manager in the Tonota North constituency, Kentse Rammidi was recently quoted as saying that retaining the seat was a matter of life and death.

He warned that the BCP should not be taken lightly considering that it enjoys the backing of BMD, BNF and BPP. The active support of these parties could boost BCP chances on September 4.

The other factor is that the BMD seems to have stolen the BDP's public image and media dominance. Lately, some BDP members have been leaving the party en masse to join its splinter party, the BMD.

Some people say the fact that the Tonota area, being under the BDP for over four decades is still lagging behind in developments, which might as well work to its disadvantage.

An excited Dr Hubona told Mmegi that she is confident of victory because, in her view, the people of Tonota North, who have been neglected for too long, need change. She argued that only the opposition, which she says is people-centred, could meaningfully address the needs of the electorate in the area.

In the meantime, BDP public relations manager, Segaetsho Garekwe said they are unfazed by opposition cooperation. He said the fact that Tonota North has been a BDP stronghold for the past 44 years should work to its advantage.

BDP executive secretary Dr Comma Serema said opposition cooperation is not a new thing in this country, which is why they do not feel threatened. He said that the BDP has a solid strategy for winning the by-election, noting however that they would not relax just because 'we have been winning in the past elections'.