The 'snap election' is not new and it can be stopped

| Wednesday April 7, 2010 00:00

 

'The opposition parties would not be prepared, especially because of the tremendous resources required,' one caller argued.  A supporter of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party argued that the opposition parties should always be ready to rule and that it was not a good enough excuse to claim unpreparedness to take on the task for any reason.

The snap election, in and of itself, would not be a novelty in Botswana.  Seretse Khama called an early election in 1969, three years after 1966, mainly to pre-empt a campaign by Bathoen Gaseitsiwe who had retired from bogosi to join the Botswana National Front.The novelty is in the current circumstances:

* Whereas Seretse Khama's will was then beyond rebuke among the chiefs, the party leadership, senior civil servants and the GammaNgwato constituencies, it now emerges that the unconditional support that was accorded his son, Ian Khama, at the electoral crisis of 1998, has quickly dissipated into a cruel illusion, here appearing as an oasis, and there evaporating into a mirage. Seretse enjoyed something close to unqualified support.  Ian, at best, commands fragmented support in an alienated parliament and a suspicious cabinet.  Selfless civil servants feel intimidated and they are looking for the quickest and safest way out of a sinking ship.

* Seretse presided over the transformation of a crude cattle-based economy to one that was looking forward to a balanced budget, a bright diamond industry, an optimistic environment for both development aid and foreign investment and internaational acclaim as something of a model democracy on the African continent.  Ian presides over an economy plagued by hesitant foreign investment, an avaricious army, a floundering mining industry, diminishing manufacturing prospects and a working population in despair over rising costs of living and a dearth of social services.

* Seretse contested against a South African-bred opposition headed by Motsamai Mpho and Phillip Matante at the ANC and the PAC whereas Ian must manage a home-brewed adversary, which is also gaining experience in speaking to the immediate problems of Batswana.  It is under Ian's watch that Nehemiah Modubule was able, under formidable opposition from his colleagues at the Botswana National Front, to create history when he became the first independent parliamentary candidate to win a seat. The ethnic question was handled clumsily under his vice presidency and as president he has done next to nothing to correct that at the CKGR, Tswapong, Kgalagadi, Bokalaka or Ramotswa.

* Seretse gave the youth hope in a prosperous future.  The youth of 2010 risk losing access to education, jobs, good health, homes and opportunity of choice.  Save for the constituency leagues and concerts, they are looking into a bleak future and they are dead scared and angry.

* Seretse, despite his occasional dictatorial behaviour at the Selebi Phikwe mine and the University of Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland, attempted to run a team at cabinet, in the councils, at Tsholetsa and at the BDP congress.  Ian seems ready to do without opposition, dissent and advice at a time when basic awareness about democracy is far ahead of where it was in 1962 when Seretse formed the BDP.  He appears to have deposited most of his trust in spies, a docile state press, political yes-men and the violent sections of the armed forces.

* Ian Khama arrives when the nature of the Botswana state is exposed to far greater scrutiny than would have been imaginable under Seretse Khama's rule. Batswana now have an authentic picture of what happens between multinationals in the likes of de Beers and the leading politicians and their brokers in the private domain.  The image of the state is tainted and the claims of a model democracy have been soiled.

What then are the prospects of a snap election?  Good, provided that the president is certain of the willingness of the army, the police and the prisons services to intervene should the result favour the opposition, which is expected to include the disgruntled folk at the BDP.

Secondly, generally leaders that act on perceived personal charisma and untested illusions about their command of power often believe that they are invincible and that they will always win.  Hitler believed that he was winning World War II until the Soviets landed at his bunker, upon which, in disbelief, he committed suicide. 

The deception is often fuelled by the intelligence services, which, for their own livelihood, and out of an irrational sense of the pursuit of a godly cause - all mixed with a willingness to pursue even the most violent means to achieve the ends of their principal - feed the leader with falsified information to give the impression of control.  They kill easily to prove that they are in charge and to impress the leaders.

Thirdly, there is the well-grounded notion that the current opposition is completely impotent.  Combined with its lack of resources, that reality skews the chances dramatically in favour of the ruling party despite and in spite the cracks in the previously impregnable organisation.  The exit of a disgruntled few creates opportunities for supporters of the status quo who are itching to prove their trustworthiness. The departure of 20 sitting parliamentarians when the election has been called creates vacancies for the president's legion of unquestioning admirers.  The rest will be left to the unpredictable political battlefield and the polls.

In addition, the 'snap election' would be designed to catch the Barata-Phathi in a state of unpreparedness, unable to extend their general goodwill to the countryside where Khamamania reigns among the older voting women. The opposition is likely to benefit more from a large voter turnout, which a snap election will suppress to the benefit of the ruling authority.

Further, the 'snap election' will test the prospects for Ian Khama should he accede later to separate presidential elections where his personal attributes might carry him through even if he meets further resistance to his style of work inside the party and at the opposition.  There is still something in the idea of Ian Khama as president elect even if Parliament goes the other way. He will continue to rule via the DIS and personal appointees in and outside the party.

Finally, though not conclusively, Ian Khama has the least to lose out of the complete collapse of Domkrag as it is known today.  If anything, his father's party will not be used by naughty malcontents for the pursuit of goals that are not in agreement with his.So, there is every chance of an election before the due date of 2014 even at the risk of throwing dust in the face of the diplomats of the western industrialised countries.

The consideration of the cost of the exercise ceases to be an issue when political power is at stake. So there should be no illusions about the ruling party creating a 'fair' environment for a good contest.  The ruling party wants precisely the opposite; advantage at any cost when the election is called!

Can the Barata-Phathi and the sitting opposition pre-empt a snap election?  Yes. By keeping the president guessing and communicating on the ground lines, internet and cell phones in such a manner as to give the DIS the impression that only an insignificant minority at the BDP will jump ship at the election, whenever it comes.  Needless to say, that trick only works if the president finally starts to care about the numbers in his favour and those against.  Otherwise he could simply say: Let them go, I have my own plans without them. 

The opposition and the BDP dissidents will be well advised to advise the army and the DIS that they have the most to lose in the event of the economic turbulence that will result from their intervention in the political arena.  The most secure, sensible and proper place for the army - particularly the officers - is inside the barracks, and always in support of the law as represented in the word of the presiding officer, the Chief Justice. The far more robust Zimbabwe economy now only offers the soldiers buffalo in the game parks for a salary in addition to a few valueless Zim dollars.  Conditions will be worse for intelligence and army officers in the very fragile Botswana economy in which depressed diamond sales in one month cause a budgetary crisis that requires extensive borrowing to meet recurrent and capital expenditure. That spells 'recession', one commentator says, and the country is in the middle of it as we speak, he asserts.

The likelihood, for which the opposition must be well-prepared, is that it is most likely that the lowliest ranks of the armed forces might be easily misled into a political rampage on the promise of free accommodation, electricity, water and access to furniture and car loans.The opposition and the Barata-Phathi will be required to campaign hard in the less corrupt sections of the private sector, among the voters and in the 'democracy-friendly' sections of the international community to raise campaign funds, which must be so publicised as to show the adversary that the opposition is capable of a good fight. 

There is also the possibility of a snap 'vote of no confidence', initially driven by the sitting opposition, to be later supported by the rebel democrats who will keep their numbers to the chest until the final hour. The effect will be far more important than the outcome.The Barata-Phathi will be required to take the initiative of dialogue out of the hands of the establishment politicians and the traditionalists.  It will be required of them to stand their ground on the matter of the concessions they demand whilst also campaigning vigorously for continued dialogue.  President Masire is a third party. President Khama is distant.  That leaves ample space for Barata-Phathi to speak to the larger constituency of disconcerted Batswana to promote the dialogue they have always wanted.

The private press - invariably prone to misdirection, docility and conservatism - will have to be persuaded to live up to the role expected of it in the fight for a more vigorous, living democracy. The DIS is already busy there and the moles of the corrupt sections of the ruling class have started to take their positions far more firmly than ever before.

Curiously, the Independent Electoral Commission announces with frightening exuberance on the front page of last week's, The Echo, that:'We are ready for a snap election'. Who said there will be 'snap election'?

It could very well mean that the Office of the President and the DIS have been speaking to their employees at the IEC.