Who wins in 2019, BDP or UDC?
Michael Dingake | Tuesday October 17, 2017 13:02
After the slings and stone ballistic missiles, the feud within the BMD, not an insignificant part of the UDC, the pendulum seems to have swung dramatically in favour of the BDP. Can the old political geezer maintain the winning streak of the past 11 general elections? Arguably the emergence of a breakaway new party by the name of Alliance for Progressives (AP) has virtually signed the death warrant in regard to the UDC expected victory. Speculation is whether AP will affiliate into the UDC or not. Assuming it affiliates, then the opposition coalition will remain intact, except that it may do so under unnecessary friction that may impact on opposition strength. Domkrag whether advantaged by the instability of its rival(s), won’t be in a position to gain from the situation. After 50-plus years of doing the same job, very few creatures have the capacity to innovate and do things differently. Once routine sets in and takes control of one’s way of behaving, it becomes nigh impossible to renovate your circumstances or innovate your programmes. One becomes dull, boring and unattractive. Domkrag has virtually passed its sell-by date; it can renew itself or attract new support. One also doubts that change of leadership from Lieutenant General Dr Seretse Khama Ian Khama to His Honour Mokgweetsi Masisi, can do the trick of making the BDP a magnet to fresh and new support. Sisiboy has been instrumental in depleting membership strength of the opposition, particularly the BCP. These defectors to my knowledge weren’t attracted by HH personality; generally these defectors were undisciplined elements in their party(ies) or were seduced by bribes. A defector informed ME, that he/she pocketed P1,000 for his/her crossover to the BDP. It’s unbelievable! But readers better believe it, because it happens, and I have heard it with my own two ears! We’ve also heard, seen and read how the man vanquished his opponent(s) in the BDP contest for BDP chairmanship. Remember Camp Dubai? We hear HH is popular amongst businesspeople and this group will empty their coffers to sponsor our president-in-waiting! The million-pula question, however, is whether HH can over 50% of the constituencies, all the time? There is a limit to things and processes!
What has sustained the BDP in power is of course our pre-democracy, traditional society with its lore and ignorance. Today, we have a new generation which refuses to underwrite the old traditional habits. It knows what’s relevant and appropriate for their lives. They are influenced by technology and international peers, and cannot be taken for granted. What will be the impact of the new party on the scene? The AP hopefully will emerge with better ideology, policy and programmes, otherwise why congest an already crowded field?
One notes, unfortunately, AP is more interested in mudslinging and denigrating individuals and rival stable mates. Character assassination is a double-edged sword, to be wielded with extreme caution. The public awaits the AP’s platform and will watch it in the political playground. Until then, one must remain cynical and/or skeptical about their utterances.
What won’t enhance Domkrag image is, it is fond of creating false impressions about themselves to attract support. And falsely informing the public that opposition have no alternative policies, when they know very well the opposition has policies, to overshadow theirs on many fronts; they’ll go further to depict the opposition as undisciplined, violent and divided, when these characteristics are found in abundance in their ranks; they project their shortcomings into their rivals. False propaganda and lies are their menu. The AP must not copy the BDP, in spite of carrying its DNA; it might lead to its ultimate recession!
One hopes the AP will quickly attain political adulthood and affiliate to the UDC, lest it unwittingly sidelines itself from its historic mission. There’s absolutely nothing wrong in forming a new political party; we are a multiparty democracy. Many and more political parties, is a sign of mature democratic credentials as a nation. It implies diversity: freedom of thought, freedom of speech and the exercising of freedom of association without let or hindrance. But, God forbid we ever think we are exceptional, omniscient and unchallengeable; AP, remaining in the opposition camp won’t augur well for the BDP. Whether it joins UDC or not, the votes it garners will nevertheless count as rejection and undermining of the BDP image. A glance at the pattern of support for the BDP has been one of decline since 1974. Not even the 1998 BNF split could reverse the downward trend of BDP popular vote except win under First-Past-The-Post undemocratic electoral system. The fact that the BDP didn’t improve its comparative performance, then meant the electorates’ attitude towards BDP is ingrained. The point one makes here is that the favourable image of the BDP has been irretrievably lost. Nothing but regime change is anticipated. Two full years before the 2019 polls is ample time to solve the hiccups around the opposition. All is not lost. The opposition should systematically and immediately draft campaign programme priorities, that spell out convincingly what the opposition swears to do when it assumes power in 2019. UDC can and must win. People want change. They shouldn’t be denied!