UDC is relevant � Maundeni
Chakalisa Dube | Friday August 4, 2017 15:16
This is despite mounting suggestions that the UDC is losing steam and may not reach the 2019 general elections as a united force, which may ultimately result in the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) sustaining its rule. For some time, various political pundits and Batswana in general have been expressing optimism that a coherent opposition coalition is the only weapon that can pluck the BDP from decades of power.
Trust levels (in the opposition to be the ruling party’s undoing) became even higher after the 2014 general elections when three of the country’s opposition parties (minus the Botswana Congress Party [BCP]) nearly pulled a surprise win against the ruling party.
It has been widely speculated that had the BCP chosen not to go solo, the opposition bloc could have easily wrestled the BDP out of power then (in 2014). The BCP chose not to be part of the UDC amid talk that there was discontent and mistrust during the opposition coalition talks ahead of the elections.
After the 2014 general election the UDC subsequently managed to convince the BCP to joint the opposition coalition. To some Batswana, the arrival of the BCP in the coalition further heightened hopes that the BDP ‘unproductive’ reign is about to end. Even some within the opposition cycles went around preaching that seizure of power from the BDP is within reach.
Oozing with confidence and a renewed sense of hope some UDC leaders also went around claiming that the opposition may even claim power before 2019. There was even talk that some BDP legislators have become increasingly disillusioned and were contemplating joining the UDC, which could have ultimately thrown the BDP out of power. However, to those who have been watching with keen interest, recent events unfolding within the opposition parties suggest that the tables may be starting to turn against the UDC.
Just like events leading to the 2014 general elections, cracks are beginning to emerge within the UDC. The opposition is slowly showing characteristics that usually result in a political party losing the trust of the electorates. The mood on the ground also shows that Batswana are beginning to lose their strong appetite for regime change. By nature, opposition parties in Botswana and across the SADC region have often lost power because they do not enjoy total trust of the voters.
Even a study by Afro barometer in 2015 established the above fact. In their study entitled, ‘Failure to unite means failure to win’, UB lecturers, Kaelo Molefe and Lewis Dzimbiri also attributed discontent and mistrust amongst the opposition parties as the reason they struggle to win power. None of the opposition political parties have started preparing for the 2019 general elections in earnest. As the elections approach only the BCP has indicated that it will start its primary elections this year, but the party was non-committal on the matter.
The UDC is also yet to clearly lay down its roadmap for the elections. Already some voters perceive this lack of preparation as lack of focus and seriousness by the opposition. The opposition parties have also taken too long to resolve their differences over constituency allocations. Early this year, the Botswana People’s Party (BPP) openly made it clear that it wants more constituencies. Out of frustration, the BPP has even made several follow-ups on the issue, but the UDC has not dealt with the matter to this day.
Other parties are also reportedly not happy with the constituency allocations and the issue may further take time to resolve. The fact that the opposition parties cannot solve these slight differences timely, to some voters it may be interpreted as a sign that they cannot solve the most important problems of a country once in government. The perception might result in loss of confidence towards the UDC in 2019. The perceived mistrust and discontent amongst leaders of the coalition movement may spill to the general membership who may retaliate by sabotaging their contracting partners and voting for the ruling party in the worst case scenario.
To some Batswana, the alleged mistrust and discontent among leaders could be calculated as a sign that the parties do not share the same ideals and beliefs. It has been widely reported that the BMD and the BPP have teamed up and deeply loathe BCP. BPP president, Motlatsi Molapisi snubbed a UDC NEC meeting this week. His reasoning was that he could not attend the NEC meeting because there is no resolution that was taken to formally include the BCP in the UDC. This fuelled speculation that the BPP detest the BCP. Such conduct can also breach public trust towards the UDC by the voters.
To add salt to injury, members of the BMD have also been tearing each other apart as they battle for the control of the party. Batswana may interpret this as a sign that the UDC is not an alternative to the BDP. Prior to the fighting amongst BMD members in Bobonong, Ndaba Gaolathe acknowledged that should members’ fight it might work against the fortunes of the UDC going forward. Members chose to ignore his line of reasoning. Despite the problems bedevilling the BMD, Maundeni believes that at the moment there is no party that can claim to be coherent and settled enough to convincingly win the next general elections.
“The BDP has its own fair share of problems. For example, Vice President Mokgweetsi Masisi is trying to consolidate his political future. As he tries to consolidate himself, he may try to sabotage or hit whoever comes his way. This trend may start during the BDP primaries this year and may weaken the party going into 2019,” Maundeni said yesterday.
He continued, “The sooner Masisi consolidated himself the better. He also needs to accept and respect those who do not support him for the sake of unity and improving the BDP’s prospects in 2019”. Maundeni said that the BMD factions should accept and respect each to ensure that they become coherent and regain the trust of the voters. “The two (Gaolathe and Pilane) factions also have to accept that there is a possibility for the other faction to lead.
The faction that does not get the opportunity to lead (as per outcome of the UDC NEC or court) should back the leading faction if the UDC wants to win power. It's a fact for the UDC that the BMD is a vital cog in the UDC,” he said. He said the BMD members should also do away with a culture of supporting certain individuals and back any of the factions that may be granted an opportunity to lead the party.
The UB don added that if the BMD factions can resolve their differences early, it would help the UDC project raise trust levels amongst voters. Maundeni also said current dynamics within the UDC, which the BMD and the BCP do not enjoy a cordial relationship with need to change for the better if the UDC wants to win power. “The two parties should also show tolerance towards each other if they are to win the elections.”