BDP has slim chance in Mochudi East
Chakalisa Dube | Friday February 2, 2018 16:46
FRANCISTOW: The recent untimely death of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) Member of Parliament (MP) Isaac Davids is likely to complicate things for the ruling party in the Mochudi East constituency.
His death is likely to rekindle hopes for the UDC that it may reclaim the constituency through the looming by-election. The by-election might also be used as a yardstick to determine the winner at the 2019 general elections.
Davids, who was reportedly stabbed to death by his farm workers on January 14, 2018, just months after he rejoined his original political home, the BDP. He was buried last Saturday in Mochudi. At the 2014 general elections Davids attracted 6,824 votes while the BDP’s Mmachakga Moruakgomo managed 5,941 votes.
Isaac Mabiletsa of the BCP was voted by 4,528 people at the time. Mabiletsa won the constituency at the 2009 general elections whilst at the BNF before defecting to the BCP.
The BCP is now part of the UDC, which gives the opposition coalition strength in terms of figures. The other dynamic is that Davids might not have had enough time to canvass the constituency because he left the opposition not so long ago.
There is also no strong suggestion that he decamped to the BDP with many opposition followers. This could explain why the UDC might win the constituency to the ruling party. For the impending by-election, the BDP can also leverage on their mellowing relationship between Bakgatla and the government (which is led by the party) after years of disharmony between the two.
According to some pundits, one of the major factors attributed to the BDP’s loss in all Mochudi constituencies in the past general elections was the poor relationship it had (at the time) with Bakgatla particularly their deposed leader Kgosi Kgafela who is currently on a self-imposed exile.
Kgafela relocated to South Africa following his legal troubles with the BDP government. Kgosi Kgafela and other members of the royal family are said to have given Mmusi the go-ahead to contest the BDP primary elections. The development has been interpreted as a sign that the BDP government is on a mission to resolve its differences with Bakgatla.
Mmusi, who is the younger brother to Kgosi Kgafela, recently won the Mochudi West primaries convincingly, which is usually not an easy feat to accomplish for a new arrival in the party.
The BDP might use Mmusi’s presence under its fold to attract voters. There is a strong perception that some Batswana in most instances tend to lend their allegiance to political bodies linked to their royal leaders or the royal family.
Barolong chief, Kgosi Lotlamoreng Montshiwa’s victory at a parliamentary by-election in Goodhope/Mabule in 2015 cemented such perception. By then, Lotlamoreng was a political novice.
In addition, Bakgatla deputy chief, Bana Sekai was reinstated recently after negotiations between the tribe and government. Mmusi is perceived to have played a major role in ensuring that Sekai is reinstated.
To some Bakgatla, this might also be viewed as a sign that the BDP-led government might be on a mission to build a strong relationship with Bakgatla.
Under these circumstances, it will not be far-fetched to think that some Bakgatla may favour the ruling party at the by-election. The problem with the BDP-led government is that Mochudi is a semi-urban area.
Over the last decade, the party has experienced hardships in its bid to improve its appeal to urban voters, particularly in the southern part of the country. Its support amongst urban voters has been shrinking.
Urban voters are of the view that the party has failed dismally to deal with unemployment and other key areas of the economy. This explains why urban voters in the constituency may punish the BDP at the looming by-election.
The other scenario is that the opposition (which is now united) has dominated the constituency in the last four general elections. The BDP’s only win (in the last four years), came at the 2009 general election. The BNF won the 2004 and 2009 general elections. The UDC won the constituency at the 2014 general elections.
The BNF is now a contracting partner of the UDC. Although history relating to elections can be deceiving at times, the ruling party still has every reason to worry ahead of the by-election.