The BDP split: What should the nation expect?

And so it has been the case with the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). The humiliating defeat that the Khama-supported A-team suffered at the party's congress in Kanye was essentially an objection to the way the party was being run. The Barata-Phathi's rallying cry was 'In defence of the [party] constitution'. Such was their cry that if you protect the party constitution you will save the country. The congress and the election came against the backdrop of a simmering tension between President Ian Khama, as BDP president and BDP strongman Daniel Kwelagobe.

It appeared Kwelagobe and generally his faction -the Kwelagobe-Kedikilwe faction, as it was called, had become too powerful for the then Nkate-Merafhe faction, which, it was whispered had the support of the president. Diluting the Kwelagobe-Kedikilwe faction's growing power would probably be the best way forward. So Khama made an order to the effect that none of the party's central committee members could serve as ministers. Kwelagobe chose to relinquish his ministerial post. Other members of the faction such as Gomolemo Motswaledi, Wynter Mmolotsi and Botsalo Ntuane sacrificed a future as ministers and decided to contest central committee posts. All of them won, to the chagrin of the A-team. In as much as there had been internal conflicts within the BDP before, these were well veiled, and to the best of the BDP leadership, kept away from the public. Might the youthful stature of most Barata-Phathi contestants be partly attributable for what would soon follow the Kanye congress? Considering many of the past infightings were among a fairly older generation, some of them party veterans.

Perhaps again, as some have said, the split within the BDP has long been coming. In fact, some argue, were it not for the restraint of the some of elderly members the party would long have fallen asunder. So it appears it had to take the youthful Barata-Phathi members, as the Kwelagobe-Kedikilwe faction later became known for, to challenge the status quo. Using his presidential powers - first as president of the party and then as president of the country, Ian Khama suspended the duly- elected Barata-Phathi prince and secretary general Gomolemo Motswaledi.

The 60-day suspension just before elections meant Motswaledi could not contest under the BDP ticket. Then after the elections, Khama banned him from the party for five years, effectively dashing his hopes of being a Member of Parliament (MP) in the next five years. Then Khama went for the jugular. Only him would chair central committee meetings.

No central Committee meetings could proceed in his absence. So Kwelagobe became a nominal chairman. When Khama appointed Thato Kwerepe as Secretary General and subsequently appointed only members of the A-team to other structures of the party, all the youthful Barata-Phathi members resigned from the central committee. Only the elderly Kwelagobe remained.

Things came to a head when Khama suspended Botsalo Ntuane, Sidney Pilane and Kabo Morwaeng. They were charged with colluding with the opposition in nominating Motswaledi for Parliament, a nomination that the BDP rejected. Although much older than the young men charged with him, Pilane would fight this battle with youthful vigour.

Together with five MPs and about 300 people sympathetic to their cause, the Barata-Phathi decided to form a breakaway party, writing a new leaf in the 44-year history of the BDP and threatening Botswana's de facto single party rule under the BDP the party of that Ian Khama's father Seretse and the likes of his successor Ketumile Masire founded.

In their first meeting in Mogoditshane the Barata-Phathi spoke of a leadership that had become tyranical, corruption in government, and a shift from the original direction of the party.  Did the BDP think the Barata-Phathi were bluffing? For the party poured scorn on the thirty-something demands that Barata-Phathi made. After all this was a bunch of young men making noise and no one would pay attention to them. Not only that. It instructed them to hand over their BDP membership cards to the party main office within 48 hours or face disciplinary action as the party would assume they are still member. They defied the order. Then, they restated their intention to form a party. More prominent names were said to be aligned to the group and certainly this could become a very politically relevant party. It surely said something about the future of the BDP. This worried former president and one of the founders so much that he met with the squabbling factions in an endeavour to bring peace. Perhaps appreciating the fact that Masire was well respected, the Barata-Phathi agreed to engage in dialogue at his guidance.

The A-team, though not saying it to Masire, clearly were spiteful of him as they disregarded his recommendations chief among which was that the two parties should meet, each sending a five-person team, and that the party should not take disciplinary action against the dissidents.

The BDP said it would not meet with Barata-Phathi as a group, but as individuals. It also said it would be taking disciplinary action against the faction members who participated in the Mogoditshane meet. So the Barata-Phathi have decided go ahead and form a new party as the BDP is not interested in dialogue. So this has proven to be actual extremes'... [that] cannot be mediated with each other precisely because they are actual extremes...'neither are they in need of mediation, because they are opposed in essence,' as Marx wisely put it. So like two magnetic poles, the two factions repel each other.

In fact, allegations are that that some members of the now A-team led Central Committee are so repulsed that they have recommended to president Khama to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election to prevent Barata-Phathi MPs crossing over with their seats. If Khama has to even begin to consider calling for elections as an option, he would have to consider the implications:

* The people who voted for Barata-Phathi in Kanye members necessarily represent the feelings of their constituencies. An election may actually mean a much bigger loss for the BDP.

Khama may especially need to look at what happened in South Africa, where the Congress of the People (COPE) won a good number of seats at municipal, provincial and Parliamentary levels despite being formed shortly before the elections. The Barata-Phathi have four-and-a-half years to prepare for elections.

* The BDP will itself have to go through Bulela Ditswe, which could bring more conflict to the party.

* The Barata-Phathi could form a tripartite alliance with the Botswana National Front (BNF)and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP). In all probability, the disgruntled independent councillors would more likely join the tripartite. So the BDP could have it all working against them.

An election is a very expensive exercise and the opposition would find it hard to get coverage from the national government controlled media, as has happened over again, will be fully used by the BDP. But then again if Khama does not call for an election, he could find himself out of a job when a combined opposition and members of Barata-Phathi in Parliament decide to pass a motion-of-no-confidence on him as President of the Republic. If they garnered 20 MPs, the BCP's 5 and BNF's 6, the BDP's A-team would be numerically inferior.

Whatever the outcome, what is certain is that the challenge presented by Barata-Phathi will become a catalyst for change within the BDP.Then with the election coming in the next five years, all eyes will be fixated on the Barata-Phathi. Are we likely to see a new government in 2014?Perhaps sooner? At that time will Jean Jacques Rousseau's statement: 'The body politic, as well as the human body, begins to die as soon as it is born, and carries in itself the causes of its destruction' become relevant? Or perhaps the new party, essentially firmly believing in BDP ideals will merge back into the BDP?