Dicing with nuclear fire
Solly Rakgomo | Friday May 18, 2018 15:33
On the other hand Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has undoubtedly been sipping champagne these days in celebration of his successful effort to lobby Donald Trump over the Iran nuclear deal.
Netanyahu’s crude interventions to change US policy had previously been rebuffed by President Obama but in Trump, Netanyahu found a similarly single-minded partner who cannot see the long-term security problems that rejecting the nuclear deal will surely bring.
Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision by saying that “the deal actually paves Iran’s path to an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs, and this within a few years’ time.” But he has yet to say, and cannot say how US withdrawal will change that assessment.
Truth of the matter is, by violating the Iran nuclear deal; Trump is undermining the security of the US, its allies and the world. Trump’s rejection of the nuclear deal actually may turn out to be a serious blow to the security of Israel and the entire Middle East.
First, by further embittering Iran’s relations with the US and Israel, Trump’s decision makes a military confrontation more likely than ever. This is because the US withdrawal makes it more likely that Iran will return to pursuing a nuclear weapons programme. Given Trump’s threats, this will increase the possibility of a war with Iran, which would be costly in blood and treasure. If Iran’s supreme leader does decide to restart a nuclear-weapon programme, it not only would give Washington and Tel Aviv the excuse they need to attack Iran.
Saudi Arabia would also be tempted to intervene on their side and build its own nuclear weapon in the process, as its foreign minister said recently.
The Minister blamed Iran for all the troubles in the region and claimed to have the backing of the other Arab countries.
Thus, we could wind up with a “Sunni bomb” to rival Iran’s and Israel’s bombs. And there’s no evidence that the Trump administration would stand in the way of Saudi Arabia’s going nuclear.
In this kind of situation we have to consider the catastrophic consequences of a US-Israel-Saudi Arabia confrontation with Iran simultaneously with ongoing fighting elsewhere in the Middle East.
Syria is already the new frontier of Israel-Iran confrontation. Wars rage in Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Total destruction of cities, massive refugee outflows, use of chemical weapons, and huge civilian casualties show us what to expect from a wider regional war.
Second, Trump’s action will be detrimental to US relations with allies UK, France and Germany, all of which tried to dissuade the US from withdrawing. Further, it will be detrimental to US relations with Russia and China, which are also parties to the agreement.
One may argue that under Trump, the US is isolating itself and diminishing its leadership role in world affairs. In short, while Trump and Netanyahu may think they have shown great courage in pushing Iran to the wall and defying Western allies, they have actually demonstrated extraordinary, even criminal shortsightedness.
They have assumed that an Iran weakened economically and pressured externally is a welcome development. In this, they have committed two cardinal sins of strategic planning: underestimating the opponent’s will to resist, and failing to ask “what next”? And what’s next will not be a case of unanticipated consequences. This action further demonstrates that US commitments are not to be relied upon. This will make it harder for other nations to trust the US to keep its word.
This may be a problem for the prospects for peace on the Korean Peninsula.
One may be forced to ask. What lies behind Trump’s decision to leave the Iran deal? Again, there are different possibilities. One possibility is his seeming desire to reverse whatever Barack Obama achieved. In Trump logic, Obama’s legacy is to be reversed, regardless of the costs of doing so.
Another possibility is that Trump is playing to his base, those who support US arrogance in international relations regardless of the costs involved. Yet another possibility is that Trump wants to have a reason to go to war with Iran, and to use this as an excuse to solidify his power in the US in the same way that Hitler did with the Reichstag fire.
Trump is literally playing with fire – nuclear fire – whether he understands it or not. He just made a very dangerous and ill-considered move on the chessboard of international affairs. But now, instead of having General H. R. McMaster, a relatively steady and sane person at the helm of the US National Security Council, he has John Bolton, a cheerleader for regime change and a man who never met a war he didn’t like.
In March 2018, Bolton published an opinion piece with the title, “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran,” monumentally dangerous advice. America and the rest of global community, beware!
Trump has just fired another serious warning shot across the bow of democracy, one that bodes ill for the nuclear non-proliferation regime, for peace and for the future of any democratic institutions.
Once again, Trump has shown clearly that he is not fit to be president, and his impeachment should be undertaken as a matter of urgency.