We told you so!
Mbongeni Mguni | Friday February 24, 2017 16:54
Through the fire
In December 2015, a Mmegi newscrew dispatched to the Kweneng and South-East districts met with the victims of El Nino, farmers and families hardest hit by a cruel cyclical climate phenomenon associated with heatwaves and poor rains in Botswana.
Village by village, farmers looked to the skies and revealed how they had given up on the season, packed away their equipment and not bothered with Government input schemes, as they suffered yet another heatwave.
Many of the farmers had hoped against hope in 2014, planting crops such as cereals and legumes, only to see their fields razed by the first El Nino event.
In 2015, many had learnt their lesson and put their hopes in social safety nets such as Ipelegeng and the drought relief measures announced by President Ian Khama in June of that year.
The second El Nino, in 2015, was forecast to be even stronger than the first and it was, bringing the driest rain season to Botswana in 34 years, punctuated by six heatwaves and at least ten deaths caused by the record temperatures.
A season of glad tidings
Reports released in the last few weeks point to a change in the air and the high possibility that the pain of the last 24 months has come to an end.
According to climatologists, El Nino is dissipating and giving way to its much-preferred relative, La Niña, a climate phenomenon which in Botswana is associated with above-average rainfall.
El Nino (Spanish for ‘the boy’) and La Niña (‘the girl’) are coupled ocean atmosphere cyclical phenomenon, which cause global changes of temperatures and rainfall.
“Early June Climate Prediction Centre forecasts indicate that a La Niña event is likely to develop during the start of the 2016/17 agricultural season,” reads an update from the Famine Early Warning Network.
“In the Southern Africa region, a La Niña even tends to be associated with above-average rainfall. However, initial model forecasts suggest that precipitation will be near average for October to December.
SADC climatologists are also projecting an abundantly wet rain season for the region.
“There is an above 70 per cent chance of a La Niña phenomenon by late 2016. “This may help reduce water deficits, as well as potentially improve recovery of the agricultural sector,” the regional organisation said in a recent statement.
Gaborone Dam reawakens
The predictions for La Niña this rain season line up with a local expert’s own studies into the patterns of rainfall, particularly the supply and levels of Gaborone Dam, over the years.
According to a study produced by Boikobo Paya – a former director of Water Affairs and former Minerals Energy and Water Resources permanent secretary – levels at Gaborone Dam over the years, have roughly echoed the El Nino, La Niña cycles.
The data indicates that since 2001, Gaborone Dam reaches peaks every five to six years and lows in similar periods.
The Dam’s peaks in the last 15 years occurred in December 2001 (100%), April 2006 (+80%) and April 2011 (+-90 %).
The Dam’s lowest points over the same period occurred in December 2005 (15%), December 2010 (35%) and total failure in December 2014.
Late season rains that occurred earlier this year, revived the Dam from a 12-month death and pushed it up to a peak of 20 percent in March/April.
With the recovery and low winter evaporation, experts believe La Niña could push Gaborone Dam to peak by April 2017, six years after its last peak in April 2011.
The forecasts have ignited debate on whether the Water Utilities Corporation (WUC) should pump water from the meagre levels at Gaborone Dam, or keep depending on dams in the North, while allowing Gaborone Dam to await the rainy season.The WUC, however, has a different view.
“Operationally, abstraction from the Gaborone Dam can be done when the Dam is five percent and above,” the Corporation said.
“It is also prudent to use the water since, if left unused it will be lost to evaporation.
“The Dam loses a third of its water to evaporation. By using the available surface water, we also prolong the life of our groundwater for use once surface water sources have dried up.”
La Niña and the budget
The change in fortunes brought on by La Niña will also been a blessing to the national coffers, which directly pumped out P445 million in drought relief measures between June 2015 and June 2016.
Government has also had to absorb higher numbers on social safety nets such as Ipelegeng and those relying on local authorities, while sectors such as health, education and sanitation have suffered from the successive droughts.
With Khama having declared another drought recently, an even higher figure will be required to support the most affected, given the deeper extent of the 2015 El Nino event.
Thus La Niña, when it arrives this rainy season, will be music to the ears of hard-pressed farmers, consumers and Government.