BNF: Never give up on the old geezer

LAWRENCE OOKEDITSE | Friday April 16, 2010 00:00

After all, the Front has mastered the art of self-destruction. Inherent in self-destruction though, is an innate knowledge of self-reconstitution that the BNF masters more than any other, including the BDP who ought to do all in their power to ensure the breakaway faction does not leave for their own survival.

One of the shocking truths in civil wars has been the resilience shown by child-soldiers. Not that I support child-soldiering. What emerges though is that born by the sword, one learns faster than most to live by the sword. Some die by the sword, but after countless battles won thanks to skill obtained since birth.

Many a man has fallen to the bullet of a minor who has perfected the art of shooting. After the 2009 general election, admittedly, the BNF emerged the biggest loser based on seats lost and seats gained. This prompted an array of analyses to the effect that the 'sick old man of Botswana politics' is on his deathbed, Moupo and others being the architects of his demise.  Lately, Rampholo Molefhe, with good measure and reasoning wrote under the title 'Leadership forum or BNF obituary?' It is an article with considerable insight on the implications of a poorly attended leadership forum.

The facilitator of the forum is said to have at some point expressed his sadness by saying 'The party is dying'. This conclusion has been reached several times before: first, in 1969-Bathoen resigns his chieftainship to lead the BNF. He delivers three seats, but he is also accused of being autocratic. The only BNF councillor in Kweneng District Council, Miriam Hirschfeldt, resigns to join the BDP. In January 1970, Daniel Kwele, also resigned hotly followed by Party Youth League Commissar F. Lebengwa and others who resigned in solidarity with Kwele.

The 1980s, arguably the most successful years in the history of the Front, also had their mad moments. Success, it seems, breeds conflict and the conflicts breed success over and over again in the BNF.

A sequel of conflict leads to electoral underperformance then recovery; well, it has not led them to state power yet. The point, however, is they seem to always bounce back to their prior strength to again captivate those in their circles. In 1984, the air was thick with optimism; the party won five seats. One of them was not an ordinary seat.  The BNF won it against BDP heavy weight, Peter Mmusi. It was also important because it brought Kenneth Koma, the party leader to Parliament.

It was an election not similar to the one in 2004, after which a by-election brought BNF president, Otsweletse Moupo, to Parliament. Despite the relatively good performance in 1984, in 1988, more expulsions followed.

The conflicts saw the party lose two of the five seats it had won in 1984 during the 1989 election. Thus the cycle of success and conflict, followed by reduction of seats repeats.

It does not end here. The regeneration ability of the BNF, mostly through pointing to the corruption scandals in government, something that does not make the best use of the BNF's abilities, was again evident.

The year 1994 ends on a high as the BNF pulls off an unprecedented 13 seats to set the BDP off in erratic panic-mode. As the levers of state power seemed within reach, the build up to the 1997 Ledumang congress like all others, is muddy. Issues of factions along the Dingake and secretary general, Motshidisi, cloud the congress.

Dingake's faction sweeps all the scores, but for one, with Motshidisi's faction crying foul creating a catalyst for debilitating conflict. After an epic electoral success, the BNF split.

This leads to the birth of the Botswana Congress Party in June as 11 MPs and 68 councillors quit the Front, leaving just two BNF Members of Parliament. Very few people predict the 'sick old man' will survive this stroke. Frail, battered and weak, however, the Front reconstitutes.

The year 1998 begins with Dr Ng'ombe's prediction that the BDP will rule for the next 15 years. His prediction is viewed largely as that of a person seeking fame. It is dismissed as baseless in the Front by the ultra optimists. In 1999 the BNF wins just six seats, the BCP only one as the anticipated revolution ends in a miscarriage. So, it's from 12 seats to six for the BNF.

Relentless as ever, the Front recoils and re-launches. A central committee led by Moupo, Akanyang Magama, Klaas Motshidisi and others steer the party after an uninspiring election.

Acting in concert, the CC expels Peter Woto and others leading to the birth of the National Democratic Front (NDF) in 2003 led by attorney, Dick Bayford. A second birth? Yes, a second birth, and the usual euphoria ensues, this time, the 'sick old man' is not just in the intensive care unit; this birth is viewed as 'the last nail' in the coffin.  Well, only time will tell as the 2004 general election approaches. Political foes point to the conflictual nature of the BNF as a reason for the party not to be elected; forever eager to fight on, the 'old man' from his deathbed throws punches back.

In the end, the Front emerges with 11 seats in all. It is a massive fight back. The hitherto 'sick old man' is now seen walking about the streets, clean-shaven, in a sparkling suit and the scars the only signs of past trouble.

While in celebratory mood, the 'old man', smart and sleek as can be, still makes a reunion with his past. Remember, it is after considerable electoral success. The bickering and loss of direction occurs again.

Moupo is exposed, some in the party, notably Moeti Mohwasa and 'the people' -remember the Molepolole extra ordinary congress - back their president. Some, notably those to later form part of the Temporary Platform, and others bay for his blood.

The verdict: a low point as the 'old man's' illness once again makes it impossible for him to throw hooks and jabs against another 'old man' in the mould of the BDP who is also embroiled in endless bruising as the younger, more liberal sons and daughters no longer tolerate the 'old man's' archaic ways of doing things.

On the side is a young man, the BCP, excited, at peace, full of energy and raring to go. The election is won by the BDP, but the BCP emerges the biggest benefactor in growth terms while the BNF emerges the biggest loser. So, history repeats itself. Obituaries are written yet again. I am drawn to criticise as well, but an obituary I am far from writing, the 'old man' knows how to rise from the dead.  So, I fear and still await a resurrection.

Well, functioning political parties are essential components of democracy. They organise voters, aggregate and articulate interests, craft policy alternatives, recruit and socialise new candidates for office, set policy-making agendas, integrate disparate groups and individuals into the democratic process, and provide the basis for coordinated electoral and legislative activity. But, as Benjamin Reilly and Per Nordlund - authors of Political Parties in Conflict-Prone Societies: Regulation, Engineering and Democratic Development observe: 'Political parties in many developing democracies remain weak and underdeveloped, often being based around personal, ethnic or regional ties rather than national interests.' Ordinarily, the ways parties form, organise and behave determines their survival.

So what is with those who vote for the BNF each time after crisis? It is a ripe research area for those interested in party politics. Sadly though, being a small developing country, opinion polls and surveys are hardly done.

The possibilities: They are endless as to why the BNF keeps bouncing back. First, the BNF has over the years proven to be the main threat and arch-rival to the ruling BDP, this makes it a natural 'home', though conflict-ridden, for those who are anti-BDP rule. These come in different hordes; some are temporary associates, while some are permanent members.

The members for life get frustrated from time to time and choose not to cast their vote at times, but always get back to vote for the only alternative for them. Partly, this is thanks to a BNF pro-political culture in certain areas.  Those who say 'it's BNF or nothing'. This constituency appears to be the biggest in voting for the BNF. Such people usually vote for their party or rather stay away.

Thus, they provide an important reserve, while pundits write out their movement, they return to cast the vote to restore it to its past position. They may get fed up with the leadership and stay away, but they will still come back. This explains the mastery of second election returns.

Ideologically inclined people, those who buy into the BNF philosophy fall within this group. The role of the political education programmes that used to exist can be credited for this. This does not help the BNF grow and reach out to new voters but ensures the party's restoration.

The mood of the people seems untenable as a causal factor. It is important as it is extensively written that corruption scandals prior to 1994 led to BNF gains, but it could prove an unreliable measure. For how then does it explain the electoral gains made by the BDP in the midst of crisis and equally damning scandals? The voters, after all do not always vote in a rational manner. Most people have been drilled to vote a certain way in any case. So, they just do it.

This points out to the point that the bulwark for the Front is the reserve of loyal supporters who see no other home for themselves but the Front. The 'old man' is ailing, but they wait by the bedside nursing until he is up. Thus, obituaries almost always appear rather prematurely, especially for the BNF.

This appears to be a jab in the face of the fastest growing movement in Botswana, the BCP, but it is not. It is an acknowledgement of one thing; that in order for the BCP to become entrenched as the official opposition in Parliament, local government and in the hearts and minds of the people by the year 2014, it will have to at least comfortably win 12 or more seats. That makes for an exciting political situation given the BNF's tested ability to pull off 12 seats on the return, if the BCP continues to grow despite the return of the 'old man', then a combined opposition of 20 to 24 MPs is possible, don't you think?

This is no jab at the BDP either, just me thinking out aloud. In the same vein, I have displayed that neither the BCP nor BNF is capable of winning state power on its own in the near future. I do not know where that leaves, Dr Ng'ombe's prediction.

I suspect though that the ancestors showed him a scenario in the event of a union of the vigour and energy of the bubbly young man and the resilience and wisdom of the often frail and sickly, yet not dying 'old man of Botswana politics'. The 'old man' is far from dead and remember, Chinua Achebe wrote in the Dance Of The Old Man. He can be swift and beat off the young man. Watch out for the regeneration in 2014 or it won't be? That would make history.